Yen Ki Kamjori Indian Market Par Bhaari Padegi

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Yen Ki Kamjori Indian Market Par Bhaari Padegi

Difleshan se nikalne ke liye Japan mein bhaari-bharakam raahat package laaya gaya hai. Isse fauren investors doosare deshon mein praufit booking kar saket hain aur kamjor yen ka faayda uthaane ke liye paisa apne desh le ja sakte hain. Yah Bhaarat jaise imarjing maarkets ke liye buri khabar hai. Motilal osavaal faainainshal services ke Chairman aur mainejing director Motilal osavaal ne yah baat Ram sahagal ko diye interview mein kahi: Kya aapko lagta hai ki maikro-ikaunami frant par Bhaarat ke liye achhe sanket mil rahe hain? Holasel inafleshan 40 maheene ke lo par hai. Vaheen, faainainshal iyar 2013 mein fiscal defisit 5.2 feesadi se kam raha. Gold aur krood Oil bhi haal mein kaafi saste hue hain. Inafleshan mein kami aana Bhaarat ke liye sabse achhi khabar hai. March mein yah 5.96 feesadi raha. Yah April mein 5 feesadi se neeche ja sakta hai. Pichhle saal ke haayar base ifekt ke chalte ismein September tak kami aati rahegi. March mein mainyufaikcharing inafleshan girkar 4.1 feesadi aur kor inafleshan 3.5 feesadi raha. Tel companiyon ko diesel ke daam badhaane ki aajaadi di gayi hai, jisse iski maang kam ho sakti hai. Isse faainainshal iyar 2014 mein 4.8 feesadi ka fiscal defisit taaraget haasil karna aasaan hoga. Gold aur krood ke aur sasta hone se kareint account defisit mein kami aaegi. Kam inafleshan se RBI ke liye intarest rate mein katauti ki gunjaaish banegi aur isse ikanaumik growth tej hogi. Kamoditi ki keematon mein I haaliya giraavat kya kuchh samay ke liye hai? Mera maanana hai ki breint krood 90-92 dollar prati barrel par setal ho sakta hai. Cheen aur Europe se demand kam hone aur America mein shel Oil-gas praudakshan badhne se aisa hoga. Short tarm mein Oil ki keemat badhne ki gunjaaish kam hai. Gold ki keemat bhi 1,200 dollar prati auns ki or badh rahi hai. Isse kam se kam Bhaarat mein investameint ke liye gold ki demand kam hogi. Sarkaar ke fiscal kansaulideshan ki koshish aur kam inafleshan ke chalte kya RBI May mein intarest rate mein kami karega? May mein repo rate aur cash reserve reshiyo (CRR) mein 0.25 feesadi ki katauti ho sakti hai. Is saal rate mein 1 feesadi ki kami ho sakti hai. Haalaanki, market iske 0.50-0.75 feesadi rahane ki ummeed kar raha hai. FII investameint mein haal mein kami I hai. Kya samay se pehle Loksabha chunaav ke chalte yah achha bana rah sakta hai? Is baare mein pakke taur par kuchh bhi naheen kaha ja sakta. Haalaanki, har saal FII 15-25 arab dollar ka investameint karte rahe hain. India ki growth story par unka bharosa bana huaa hai. Vaheen, reetel investors aur domestik instityooshans ki ummeed toot chuki hai. Mera maanana hai ki domestik instityooshans ki seling bhi is saal September-October tak peek par pahunch chuki hogi. Japan mein 1.4 lakh karod dollar ke raahat package se Bhaarat se paisa nikaalkar FII vahaan laga sakte hain? Aisa ho sakta hai. Yen ka kamjor hona Bhaarat sahit imarjing maarkets ke liye buri khabar hai. Yah Japan ke stock market ke liye shubh sanket hai. America aur doosare stebal currency vaale deshon ko bhi isse faayda hoga. Sensex pichhle 12 maheene ke ipeees ke hisaab se abhi 17 ke pi/E par trade kar raha hai. Kya yah haaliya giraavat ke baad bhi mahanga hai? Market fyoochar arning ke hisaab se trade karte hain. Faainainshal iyar 2014 ke hisaab se Sensex 14.7 ke pi/E par trade kar raha hai. Yah pichhle 10 saal ke evarej vailyooeshan ke kareeb hai. Main kahoonga ki yah theek-thaak vailyooeshan hai. Na hi yah mahanga hai aur na hi sasta.

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