poorvaanumaan

agyaat sthitiyon mein tarkapoorn aakalan (estimation) karne ko poorvaanumaan karna (Forecasting) kehte hain. jaise do din baad kisi sthaan ke mausam ke baare mein anumaan lagaana, ek varsh baad kisi desh ki aarthik sthiti ke baare mein kehna aadi poorvaanumaan hain. poorvaanumaan ke saath anishchitta aur khatra (Risk) ka ghanisht sambandh hai. aadhunik yug mein poorvaanumaan ke anekaanek upayog hain; jaise - graahak ki maang ki yojana banaana.

kuchh poorvaanumaan jo satya naheen hue

  • relagaadi ke vikaas ne vishv bhar mein kraanti la di, kintu ise bhi kai prakaar ke virodh ka saamana karna pada. university kaalej, landan ke vidvaan professor da laardar ne ghoshana ki thi ki tej gati se rel yaatra sambhav naheen hai.
  • hava se bhaari udne waali masheenon ka nirmaan asambhav hai : prakhyaat vaigyaanik evam vahaaain ki raayal society ke adhyaksh laard kelvin ne 1895 mein yeh bhavishyavaani ki thi. kintu insaan uda aur vah bhi san 1903 mein hi. edisn ne bhi iske kuchh varsh pehle yeh ghoshana ki thi ki udne waali machine ka nirmaan sambhav naheen hai.
  • duniya mein isse bada vimaan kabhi naheen banega : 1933 mein Boeing 247 ki udaan dekhne ke baad Boeing ke ek engineer ne ye baat kahi thi ki isse bada vimaan kabhi naheen banega. us vimaan mein 10 logon ke baithane ki jagah thi. isi tarah 1904 mein professor of stretaji maarsel fardinaand foch ne kaha tha ki eyarovimaan intaresting khilaune hain, lekin yuddh ke liye unka koi istamaal naheen hai.
  • jab edisn vidyut balb banaane ki apni pariyojana par kaam kar rahe the tab british parliament ke vidvaan saansadon ki ek samiti ne majaak karte hue kaha tha ki yeh cheej (vidyut balb) atalaantik ke paar ke hamaare mitron (ameriki logon) ke liye theek ho sakti hai, lekin vigyaan evam vyaavahaarikta (feejibiliti) ki samajh rakhane vaalon ke dhyaan dene laayak naheen hai.
  • jab Graham bail ne telephone ka aavishkaar kiya to tatkaaleen ameriki raashtrapati radaraford hej ne iska pradarshan dekhkar kaha tha ki 'aavishkaar to theek hai kintu is cheej ko bhala kaun istemaal karna chaahega?'
  • pehla parmaanu vikhndan karne vaale Britain ke mahaan vaigyaanik radaraford ne kaha tha ki ismein nihit oorja bahut hi kam hai. isko 'oorja srot' ke roop mein naheen dekha ja sakta.
  • TV jyaada dinon ka khel naheen hai : akedami sammaan winner actor, prodyooshar, director deril jaanuk ne 1946 mein kaha tha ki TV jyaada din naheen chalega kyonki log plaaivud ke box ko ghoorate-ghoorate oob jaaenge. 1926 mein ameriki inaveintar li difaurest ne kaha tha ki thyoritikli to telivijn ka chal paana sambhav hai, lekin kaarobaari lihaaj se iska chal paana naamumkin hai. iske baare mein sochana bevakoofi hai.
  • ghar ke liye computer kaun khareedega? : aaj se lagbhag 31 saal pehle digital ikvipmeint kaurp ke faaundar ken oslaun ne kaha tha ki gharon mein computer ki koi jaroorat naheen hai. aisi bhavishyavaani ek aur aadmi ne ki thi. unka naam tha Thomas Watson aur aaibeeem ke Chairman the. unhonne 1943 mein kaha tha ki duniya mein paanch computer ke liye bhi market naheen hai. lagbhag 10 saal pehle aurekal ke CEO lairi elisn ne PC ko vichitr divaais karaar diya tha. lekin aap jaante hi hain ki PC hamaari jindagi ka kitna mahatvapoorn hissa ban gaya hai.
  • 640 KB se jyaada memori ki kise jaroorat hai? : aisa kaha jaata hai ki 1981 mein bill Gates ne kaha tha ki kisi ko bhi apne parsanal computer ke liye isse jyaada memori ki jaroorat naheen hogi. haalaanki 1996 mein Bloomberg ko diye ek interview mein bill Gates ne iska khandan kiya. unhonne kaha- mainne kuchh bevakoofi ki baatein aur kuchh galat baatein kahi theen. lekin 640 KB jaisi baat naheen kahi thi. computer ki duniya se juda koi aadmi ye naheen kah sakta ki itni memori kaafi hogi. software ke shaktishaali hone aur computer ke fast hone ke saath memori ki jaroorat badhti jaaegi. balki har do saal par memori ki jaroorat doguni ho jaaegi.
  • you-tube (YouTube) chalega naheen : ye baat Youtube ke kisi kanpititr ne naheen, iske ko-faaundar Steve chen ne March 2005 mein kahi thi. unka kehna tha ki main jitne video dekhna chaahata hoon, utane video hain hi naheen. us samay you tube par sirf 50 video the. do saal baad Youtube par 1.32 lakh video aa gaye. Youtube ka jaadoo aisa chala ki Google ne 1.65 arab dollar ke share dekar Youtube ko khareed liya. haal hi mein ek naami enaalist sandeep Agrawal ne andaaja lagaaya hai ki is video site se is saal 180 se 200 arab dollar ki kamaai hogi.
  • aaipaud? ek saal se pehle hi khatm ho jaaega : ye baat jyaada puraani bhi naheen hai. emsastaard ke faaundar sar Allen maaikel sugar ne February 2005 mein kaha tha ki aaipaud agale christmas tak apni maut mar jaaega. daraasal emsastaard aur eppal kanpyootars mein parsanal computer market par kabja jamaane ki jang chhidi hui thi. aap dekh hi rahe hain ki aaipaud is samay duniya ka sabse paupular gaijets hai aur duniya iski deevaani hai. October mein daniya mein 1.1 karod aaipaud bike.
  • spaim ki samasya khatm ho jaaegi (bill Gates, 2004 mein)
  • cheen mein eBay ka bolabaala hoga

inhein bhi dekhein

  • praagukti (preedikshan)
  • bhavishyavaani (profesi)
  • naastraademas
  • asatya siddh huin majahabi bhavishyavaaniyaaain
  • bahirveshan (extrapolation)

baahari kadiyaaain