bhoomandaleeya ooshmeekaran

vaish‍aavik maadh‍aaya satah ka taap 1961-1990 ke saapeksh se bhin‍aan hai
1995 se 2004 ke dauraan ausat dharaataleeya taapamaan 1940 se 1980 tak ke ausat taapamaan se bhin‍aan hai

bhoomandaleeya ooshmeekaran (ya g‍aalobal vaurming) ka arth pruthvi ki niktas‍aath-satah vaayu aur mahaasaagar ke ausat taapamaan mein 20veen shataab‍aadi se ho rahi vruddhi aur usaki anumaanit nirantarata hai. pruth‍aavi ki satah ke nikat vishv ki vaayu ke ausat taapamaan mein 2005 tak 100 varshon ke dauraan 0.74 ± (±) 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) ki vruddhi hui hai.[1] jalavaayu parivartan par baithe antarasarakaar panel (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)(IPCC) ne nishkarsh nikaala hai ki "20 veen shataabdi ke madhya se sansaar ke ausatan taapamaan mein jo vruddhi hui hai usaka mukhya (due to) kaaran enth‍aaropojenik (anthropogenic) (manushya dvaara nirmit) greenahaaus gaison (greenhouse gas) ki adhik maatra ke kaaran hua"[1] greenahaaus ka asar haiI jvaalaamukhi ke saath milkar saur parivartan (solar variation) jaisi praakrutik ghatnaaen 1950 se pehle vaale audyogik kaal tak kam garmi ke prabhaav dikhaai dete the tatha 1950 ke baad iske thanda hone ke alp prabhaav dikhaai dete the.[2][3]

in nishkarshon ki pushti pramukh audyogik deshon (scientific societies and academies of science)[4] ki sabhi raashtreeya vaigyaanik akaadamiyon sahit kam se kam 30 vaigyaanik samitiyon aur vigyaan akaadamiyon ne ki hai.[5][6][7] jahaaain ek or kuchh niji vaigyaaniko (individual scientists) ne aaipeeseesi ki kuchh khojon ke prati asahamati vyakt ki hai,[8] vaheen doosari or jalavaayu parivartan par kaarya kar rahe adhikaansh vaigyaaniko ne aaipeeseesi ke pramukh nishkarshon par sahamati jataai hai.[9][10] jaisa ki naam se hi saaf hai, global vaarming dharati ke vaataavaran ke taapamaan mein lagaataar ho rahi badhotri hai. hamaari dharati praakrutik taur par soorya ki kirnon se ushma (heet, garmi) praapt karti hai. ye kirnein vaayumandal (etamaaspifyar) se gujarati huin dharati ki satah (jameen, base) se takaraati hain aur fir vaheen se paraavartit (riflekshan) hokar pun: laut jaati hain. dharati ka vaayumandal kai gaison se milkar bana hai jinmein kuchh greenahaaus gaisein bhi shaamil hain. inmein se adhikaansh (most of dem, bahut adhik) dharati ke oopar ek prakaar se ek praakrutik aavaran (leyar, kavar) bana leti hain. yeh aavaran lautati kirnon ke ek hisse ko rok leta hai aur is prakaar dharati ke vaataavaran ko garm banaae rakhata hai. gaurtalab (it is rikaald, maaloom hona) hai ki manushyon, praaniyon aur paudhon ke jeevit rahane ke liye kam se kam 16 degree selshiys taapamaan aavashyak hota hai. vaigyaaniko ka maanana hai ki greenahaaus gaison mein badhotri hone par yeh aavaran aur bhi saghan (adhik mota hona) ya mota hota jaata hai. aise mein yeh aavaran soorya ki adhik kirnon ko rokane lagta hai aur fir yaheen se shuroo ho jaate hain global vaarming ke dushprabhaav (side ifekt). aaipeeseesi dvaara saaragarbhit jalavaayu pratimaan ke (Climate model) pratiroopan ingit karte hain ki dharaatal ka ausat global taapamaan 21veen shataabdi[1] ke dauraan aur adhik badh sakta hai. parinaamo mein itni bhinnata (scenarios) ka kaaran hai greenahaaus gaison (greenhouse gas) ke utsarjan ke alag-alag maapdand istemaal kiye ja rahe hain aur jalavaayu sanvedanasheelata (climate sensitivity) ke bhi alag-alag paimaane banaaye gaye hain haalaanki adhiktar adh‍aayayan 2100 tak ki avadhi par kedrit hain, fir bhi bhale hi greenahaaus gas ke s‍aatar sthir ho jaaeain tab bhi vaarming tatha samudra ke s‍aatar mein vrudvi hone ki lagaataar aasha ki jaati hai. mahaasaagaron ki vishaal garmi ke parinaam ke kaaran hi santulan tak pahuainchane mein vilamb hoti hai[1]

saare sansaar ke taapamaan mein vruddhi se samudra ke star (sea level to rise) se vruddhi, mausam ki teevrata (extreme weather) mein vruddhi aur avakshepan (precipitation) ki maatra aur rachana mein mahatvapoorn badlaav aa sakta hai global vaarming ke anya prabhaavon (effects of global warming) mein krushi upaj (agricultural yield) mein parivartan, vyaapaar maargon mein sanshodhan, gleshiyr ka peechhe hatna (glacier retreat), prajaatiye vilopan (extinctions) aur bimaarion mein vruddhi (disease vectors) shaamil hain

shesh vaigyaanik anishchittaaon (uncertainties) mein bhavish‍aaya ka garm taapamaan aur poore vishv ke alag-alag bhaagon mein garmi aur sambandhit parivrtanon ki bhin‍aanata shaamil hai.jyaadaatar raashtreeya sarkaaron (Most national governments) ne kyoto protokaul (Kyoto Protocol) par hastaakshar kar diye hain aur usaki tasdeek bhi kar di hai. kyoto protokaul ka uddeshya greenahaaus gaison O kam karna hai, par saare sansaar mein raajanitik (political) aur lok bahas (public debate) chhidi hui hai ki koi kadam uthaana chaahiye ke nahi taaki bhavishya mein vaarming ko kam kiya ja sake ya ulataaya (reduce or reverse) ja sake ya uske asar ko dhaala (adapt) ja sake

anukram

shabdaavali

"global vaurming" se aashay haal hi ke dashakon mein hui vaarming aur iske nirantar bane rahane ke anumaan aur iske aprat‍aayaksh roop se maanav par padne vaale prabhaav se hai. jalavaayu parivartan par sanyukt raashtra samjhaute ki rooparekha mein "maanav dvaara kiye gaye parivrtanon ke liye "jalavaayu parivartan aur an‍aaya parivrtano ke liye "jalavaayu parivrtanasheelata" shab‍aad ka istemaal kiya hai. yeh shabd " jalavaayu parivartan " maanata hai ki badhte taapamaan hi ekamaatr prabhaav naheen hain yeh shabd " enth‍aaropojenik global vaurming " kai baar prayog us samay prayog kiya jaata hai jab maanav prerit parivartan par dhyaan keindrit hota hai.

kaaran

aaipeeseesi ki chaturth moolyaankan rirpot dvaara (radiative forcing) anumaanit vartamaan vikirnasheel baadhyata ke ghatak (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report).

pruthvi ki jalavaayu baahari dabaav ke (orbital forcing),[11][12],[13] chalte parivrtit hoti rahati hai jismein soorya ke chaaron or iske apni kaksha mein hone vaale parivrtanabhi shaamil hain. kaksha par padne vaale dabaav saur chamak (solar luminosity), jvaalaamukhi udagaar,[14] tatha vaayumandaleesaya greenahaaus gaison ke abhikeindran (greenhouse gas) ko bhi parivrtit karta hai. vaigyaanik aam sahamati (scientific consensus) hone ke baad bhi haal hi mein hui garmi mein vruddhi ke vistrut kaaran (causes of the recent warming) shodh ka vishay hote hain[15][16] yeh hai ki maanaveeya gatividhiyon ke kaaran vaataavaran ki greenahaaus gaison mein vruddhi se hone waali adhikaansh garmi ko audyogik yug ki shuruaat ke baad se dekha gaya. haal hi ke 50 varsho ko yeh shreya spash‍aat taur par jaata hai jiske liye aankada upalabdh hain. aam sahamati ke vichaar se alag kuchh anya sankalpanaaon (hypotheses) ka sujhaav adhikaansh taapamaan vruddhi ki vyaakh‍aaya karne ke liye diya jaata hai. aisi hi ek parikalpana ka prastaav hai ki garmi alag alag roopon mein saur gaatividhi ka parinaam ho sakti hai.[17][18][19]

baadh‍aayata ka koi bhi prabhaav taatkaalik naheen hai. dharati ke mahaasaagaron ka taap jadtv (thermal inertia) aur kai apratyaksh prabhaavon ki dheemi pratikriya ka matlab hai dharati ka vartamaan taapamaan usapar daale gaye dabaav ke saath santulan mein nahi hai jalavaayu vachanabaddhata (Climate commitment) ke adh‍aayayanon se pradarshit‍ hota hai ki yadi greenahaaus gaison ko 2000 s‍aatar par sthir kar diya jaae to isse aage bhi kuchh seema tak. garmi dikhaai degi[20]

vaayumandal mein greenahaaus gaisein

greenahaaus prabhaav ki khoj 1824 mein Joseph foriyr dvaara ki gayi thi tatha 1896 mein pehli baar sven‍aati aarahenes (Svante Arrhenius) dvaara iski maatraatmak jaanch ki gayi thi. yeh prakriya dvaara jo avashoshan (absorption) aur utsarjan ke avarakt vikirn dvaara vaataavaran mein garm gaisein vaataavaran mein ek aur grah ki satah kam hai.

vaataavaran mein kaarban daaioksaaid mein haal hi mein hone waali badhotari (CO2) .maasik CO2 maapan yeh darshaate hain ki agar saare varsh ko dekha jaae to chhote-chhote mausami parivartan dekhne ko milte hain ; har saal yeh parivartan uttari golaardh (Northern Hemisphere) mein vasavt mausam ke aakhir mein adhik ho jaate hain aur jab uttari golaardh mein fasalein beejane ka samay hota hai to yeh parivartan kam ho jaate hain kyoonki paudhe vaataavaran mein se kuchh CO2 hata lete hainI

greenahaaus prabhaav ke roop mein astitv is prakaar vivaadit naheen hai. svaabhaavik roop se green house gaison ke paas hone ka matlab hai ek garmi ke prabhaav ke baare mein 33 degree celcius (59 °aF), jo pruthvi par rahane yogya[21][22] naheen honge. .pruthvi par mahatvapoorn greenhause gaisein hain, jal-vaashp (water vapor), jo ki 36–70 pratishat tak greenhouse prabhaav paida karta hai (baadal isame shaamil nahi hain (not including clouds)) ; carbon dioxide (CO2) jo 9-26 pratishat tak greenhouse prabhaav paida karta hai; methane (methane) (CH4) 4-9 pratishat tak aur ozone, jo 3-7 pratishat tak prabhaav paida karti hai I[23][24] mudda yeh hai ki maanaveeya gatividhiyon se jab kuchh greenahaaus gaison ki vaayumandaleeya saandrata badhti hai tab greenahaaus prabhaav ki shakti kaise parivrtit hoti hai.

audyogik kraanti ke baad se maanavi gatividhi mein vruddhi hui hai jiske kaaran green house gaison ki maatra mein bahut jiyaada vruddhi hui hai, iske kaaran vikranasheel baadhya (radiative forcing) CO se2, methane (methane), tropospheric ojon, seeefasi (CFC) aur s nitrous bhi bahut badh gaye hain (nitrous oxide)Iagar anu (Molecule) ki drushti se dekhein to methane greenahaaus gascarbon dioxide ki tulana mein adhik prabhaavi hai, par usaki saandrata itni kam hai ki usaka vikranasheel jor (radiative forcing) kaarban daaiok‍aasaaid ki tulana mein keval ek chauthaai hai praaktik roop se utpann hone waali kuchh doosari gaise greenahaaus prabhaav mein yogadaan deti hain. in‍amein se ek naaitras oksaaid (nitrous oxide) (N2O) krushi jaisi maanaveeya gatividhiyon ke kaaran apna vikaas kar rahi hai!CO2 aur CH4 ki vaataavaran saandrata (atmospheric concentrations) 1700 veen sadi ke madh‍aaya mein audyogik kraanti ki shuruaat ke baad se kramash: 31% aur 149% badh gayi hai. pichhle 650,000 varshon ke dauraan kisi bhi samay se in staron ko kaafi adhik maana ja raha hai. yeh vah avadhi hai jiske liye vishvasaneeya aankade aais kor (ice core)s.[25] se nikaale gaye hain. kam pratyaksh bhoovaijnyaaanik pramaan se yeh maana jaata hai ki CO2 ki itni jyaada maatra pichhli baar 20 karod varsh pehle hui thi.[26] jeevaash‍aam indhan (Fossil fuel) ke jalne se pichhle 20 varshon mein maanaveeya gatividhiyon se CO2 mein hui badhotari mein kam se kam ek tihaai vruddhi hai. shesh kaarya bhoomi ke upayog mein parivartan ke kaaran se hota hai visheshakar vanon ki kataai se aisa hota hai. (deforestation)[27]

vaataavaran ki CO2 mein vaarshik vruddhi: 1960 mein ausat vaarshik vruddhi 2000 se 2007 ke beech hui vruddhi ke 37% hi thi.[28]

CO2 ki vartamaan vaasayumandaleeya saandrata aayatan[29] ki drushti se lagbhag 385 prati das lakh ( (ppm) peepeeem) hai. bhavishya mein CO2 ka star jyaada hone ki aashanka hai kyoonki jeevaashm indhan aur bhoomi ke upayog mein kaafi parivartan aa rahe hain vruddhi k dar anishchit aarthik, saamaajik (sociological), takaneeki aur praakrutik ghatnaaon par nirbhar karegi par shaayad aakhirkaar jeevaashm indhan ki upalabdhata hi nirnaayak saabit ho aaipeeseesi ki utsarjan paridrush‍aayon par vishesh report (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) bhavishya ke kai CO2 paridrush‍aayo ke baare mein bataati hai jo 2100 ke aakhir tak 541 se lekar 970 peepeeem tak ho sakte hain.[30] is star tak pahunchane ke liye tatha 2100 ke baad bhi utsarjan jaari rakhane ke liye jeevaashm indhan ke paryaapt bhandaar hain, yadi koyala (coal), baaloo ret (tar sands) ya methane kleth‍aaret (methane clathrate) ka vyaapak prayog[31] kiya jaata hai.

punanirveshan

jalavaayu par baadh‍aak ghatakon ke prabhaav vibhinn prakriyaaon dvaara jatil ho jaate hain.

sarvaadhik spash‍aat pratyuttaron mein se ek ka sanbandh‍ jal ke vaashpeekaran se hai. kaarban daai oksaaid jaisi deerghakaaleen greenahaaus prabhaav waali gaison ke milne se paida hone waali garmi vaayumandal mein jal ke adhik maatra mein vaash‍aapeekaran ka kaaran banta hai. kyoonki jal-vaashp khud ek greenahaaus gas hai, isliye isse vaataavaran aur bhi jyaada garm ho jaata hai aur isse aur bi jyaada paani vaashp mein badalta hai (k sakaaraatmak punanirveshan (positive feedback)) aur yeh pratikriya chalti rahati hai jabatak ki punanirveshan chakr par rok na lag jaae.akele kaarban daai aaksaaid se hone vaale iska prabhaav bahut vishaal hoga. yadyapi pratyuttar ki yeh prakriya vaayu ki nami ke kanon mein badhotari karti hai, tab bhi saapeksh aardrata (relative humidity) ya to sthir rahati hai ya thodi si ghat jaati hai kyonki vaayu garm[32] ho jaati hai. pratyuttar ka yeh prabhaav keval dheere dheere hi ulta ho sakta hai kyonki kaarban daai aaksaaid mein deerghakaaleen vaayumandaleeya jeevanaavadhi (atmospheric lifetime) hoti hai.

baadalon se prabhaavit hone vaale pratyuttar ek nirantar chalne waali prakriya hai. neeche se dekha hai, baadal ko vaapas utsarjan avarakt vikirn ki satah aur ek itni garmi prabhaav daalati hai, oopar se dekha hai, baadal aur soorya ke prakaash utsarjan avarakt vikirn pratibinbit karne ke liye jagah hai aur isliye ek sheetalan prabhaav daalati hai. shuddh prabhaav kya garm athva thanda hai yeh baadal ki kism (type) aur unchaai jaise vivranon par nirbhar karta hai. jalavaayu ke pratimaanon par in vivranon ko pradarshit karna kathin hota hai kyonki jalavaayu pratimaanon[32] ke sanganak khaanon par rikt sthaanon ke binduon ke beech ki tulana mein baadal bahut chhote hote hain.

jaise jaise vaayumandal garm hota jaata hai vaise vaise paraamarshi pratyuttar ki prakriya chook dar (lapse rate) mein parivartan se sambandhit hoti hai.kshobhamandal (troposphere) unchaai mein badhotari hone ke saath-saath vaayumandal ka taapamaan ghatata jaata hai. avarakt vikirn ka utsarjan taapamaan ki chauthi shakti par nirbhar karta hai, vaataavaran ki upari tah se jyaada lambi vikirn (longwave radiation) utsarjit hoti hai aur nichli tah se yeh kam hoti hai. jyaadaatar vikirn jo upari vaataavaran se utsarjit hoti hai khala mein chali jaati hai, jabki nichle vaataavaran se utsarjit hone waali vikirn dobaara vataavaarav dvaara sokh li jaati hai. is prakaar, green house prabhaav vaataavaran mein taapamaan ke oonchaai ke saath kam hone ki raftaar pe nirbhar karta hai, agar taapamaan ki dar kam hai to green house asar jyaada hoga aur agar taapamaan girne ki dar kam hai to green house asar kam hoga .siddhaant aur model donon yeh sanket karte hain ki vaarming se oonchaai ke saath taapamaan ka girna kam ho jaaega, jisse ek nakaaraatmak lapse rate feedback paida ho jaaega aur isse green house asar kamzor hoga .oonchaai ke saath taapamaan parivartan ki dar ka maapan chhoti-chhoti trutiyon ke prati bahut saveindeinsheel hota hai, isse yeh pata karna bahut mushkil ho jaata hai ki model hakeekat se mel khaata hai ke nahi .[33]


ek aur mahatvapoorn prakriya hai aais'albedo pratyuttar[34] jab vaishvik taapamaan mein vruddhi hoti hai, tab dhruvon ke paas barf tej dar se pighlane lagti hai. jaise jaise barf pighlati hai vaise vaise bhoomi athva khula jal usaka s‍aath‍aasthaan le leta hai. bhoomi aur jal donon hi barf ki tulana mein kam paraavartak hote hain aur iseeliye saur vikirn ko adhik maatra mein sokh lete hain. isse adhik garmi ho jaati hai jiske kaaran aur adhik barf pighlane lagti hai tatha yeh chakr chalta rahata hai.

sakaraamaatak punanirveshan (Positive feedback) jo ki CO2 aur CH4 ke utsarjan ke kaaran hota hai ek anya kaaran hai jo vaarming ko badhaata hai. yeh gaisein jamate hue permafrost (permafrost) jaise ki jama hui lakdi (peat), siberia (bog) mein daladal (Siberia) se paida hoti hain .[35] isi tarah methane clathrate (methane clathrate), jo ki mahaasaagaron mein paaya jaata hai, se jo bhaari maatra mein CH4 niklati hai, vaarming ka ek mukhya kaaran ho sakti hai, jaisa ki clathrate gun hypothesis (clathrate gun hypothesis) kehta hai.

jaise jaise samudra garm hota jaata hai vaise vaise kaarban ko alag karne ki kshamata ghatati jaati hai. aisa isliye hai kyoonki mesopelagic kshetr (mesopelagic zone) (lagbhag 200 se 1000 meter ki gaharaai tak) mein poshakon ka girta hua star daayatam (diatom) ke vikaas mein bhaadak hota hai aur chhote phytoplankton (phytoplankton) ke hak mein hota hai jo ki kaarban[36] ke biological pump (biological pump) s hain

saur parivartan

pichhle 30 varshon se

saur parivartan

kuchh kaagajaat sujhaav dete hain ki soorya ke yogadaan ka kam aakalan kiya gaya hai. Duke University (Duke University) ke do shodhakartaaon, Bruce West aur Nicola Scafetta ne yeh anumaan lagaaya hai ki soorya ne 1900-2000 tak shaayad 45-50 pratishat tak taapamaan badhaane mein yogadaan diya hai aur 1980 aur 2000[37] ke beech mein lagbhag 25-35 pratishat tak taapamaan badhaaya hai. Peter Scott aur anya shodhakartaaon dvaara pata chala hai jalavaayu model green house gaison ke prabhaav ko jiaada aankate hain aur solar forsing ko jiada mahatva nahi dete, ve yeh bhi sujhaav dete hain jvaalaamukhi dhool aur sulfaate erosols O bhi kam aaainka gaya hai[38] fir bhi ve maanate hain ki solar forsing hone ke baavajood, jiadaatar vaarming green house gaison ke kaaran hone ki sambhaavana hai, khaas kar ke 20 veen sadi ke madhya se lekar .

ek anumaan yeh hai ki alag alag alag roopon mein saur nirgam (solar output), jo ki baadalon ke bannane se, jo ki gaalaaktik brahmaandeeya kirnon (galactic cosmic ray) dvaara bante hain, ne bhi haal ki vaarming[39] mein hissedaari ki hai. yeh bhi sujhaav diya gaya hai ki soorya mein jo chunbakeeya gatividhi hai vah bhi brahmaandeeya kirnon ko pravartit karti hai jisse baadalon ke sanghanan naabhik prabhaavit hote hain aur jalavaayu[40] bhi prabhaavit hoti hai.

soorya ki gatividhi ka ek asar yeh bhi hoga ki isse straitosfiyr (stratosphere) garm ho jaayegi, jabaki green house gas siddhaant (greenhouse gas theory) vahaan[41] par sheetalan ki bhavishyavaani karta hai. yeh rujhaan dekha gaya hai 1960 ke baad se lekar straitosfiyr[42] thanda hi hua hai.stratosferik ojon ki katauti (Reduction of stratospheric ozone) ke kaaran sheetalata bhi paida hoti hai, par ojon rikteekaran 1970[43] ke dashak ke ant tak nahi hua .saur vibhinnata aur jvaalaamukhi gatividhi0 ke kaaran audyogik yug se lekar 1950 tak garmi nahi badhi balki sheetalan hi hua hai.[1] 2006 mein Peter faukal aur sanyukt raajya America, Germany aur svitjralaind ke anya shodhakartaaon ne paaya ki soorya ki chamak mein pichhle 1000 saalon se koi (net increase) parivartan nahi aaya hai.saur chakr (Solar cycle) ke kaaran pichhle 30 saalon mein keval 0.07 pratishat ki hi vruddhi hui hai. global vaarming ke liye yeh bahut chhota tatha mahatvapoorn yogadaan dene wala prabhaav hai.[44][45] Mike lokkvood aur klaaus frohaleech ke ek shodh ne paaya ki 1985 se lekar ab tak global vaarming aur saur vikirn mein koi sambandh nahi hai, chaahe vah saur urja ki baat ho ya brahmaandeeya kirnon (cosmic ray) ki .[46]Henrik Svensmark (Henrik Svensmark) aur Eigil Friis - Christensen (Eigil Friis-Christensen), jo ki baadalon ko paida karne (cloud seeding) ke sansthaapak hain, ne apne is anumaan[47] ki aalochna ki hai 2007 mein ek shodh se paaya gaya ki pichhle bees saalon mein dharati par aane waali brahmaandeeya kirnon aur baadalon aur taapamaan[48][49][50] mein koi sanbhandh nahi nahi .

taapamaan mein parivartan

do sahasraabdiyon ke taapamaan alag-alag tareekon se dekhe gaye, pratyek tareeke mein dashak ko paimaana banaaya gaya .2004 ki saalaana ganana sandarbh ke liye ankbadh ki gayi hai

haal mein

vaadya taapamaan rikaard (instrumental temperature record) ke anusaar pruthvi ka taapamaan, chaahe vo jameen par ho ya samudra mein, 1860-1900 ke mukaabale badha hai yeh taapamaan mein vruddhi shahari garmi dweep (urban heat island) prabhaav[51] se prabhaavit nahi hota 1079 se, jameen ka taapamaan samudra ke taapamaan ke mukaabale lagbhag dugana bada hai (0.25 °aC prati dashak banispat 0.13 °ak prati dashak)[52] nichle troposfere (troposphere) mein taapamaan 0.12 aur 0.22 °aC ((0.22 aur 0.4 °aF) ke beech mein prati dashak bada hai, jaisa ki upagrah ke aankade bataate hain . (satellite temperature measurements) yeh maana jaata hai ki 1850 se pehle pichhle ek ya do hajaar saalon (one or two thousand years) se taapamaan apekshaakrut sthir raha hai, kuchh kshetreeye utaar -chadaav jaise ki madhyakaaleen garm kaal (Medieval Warm Period) ya alp barfeela yug (Little Ice Age)

samudra mein taapamaan jameen ke mukaabale dheere badte hain kyoonki mahaasaagaron ki adhik heat kaipasiti adhik hoti hai aur ve vaashpeekaran se jiaada garmi kho sakte hain[53]utari golaardh (Northern Hemisphere) mein jameen jiaada hai isliye vah dakshini golaardh (Southern Hemisphere) ki tulana mein jaldi garm hota hai utari golaardh mein mausami barf aur samudri barf ke vyaapak ilaake hain jo ki ice-albedo feedabaik par nirbhar karte hain utari golaardh mein dakshini golaardh ke mukaabale adhik green house gaisein utsarjit ki jaati hain, par yeh garmi mein antar ke liye jimmedaar nahi hai kyoonki pramukh green house gaisein kaafi samay tak rahati hain aur donon golaardho mein achhi tarah ghul-mil jaati hain

NASA's goddard antariksh adhyayan sansthaan (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), ke anumaanon par aadhaarit, 2005 sabse garm saal tha, jabase maapan ke saadhan 1800 ke ant mein upalabdh hue tab se, 1998 ke record ko isne ek degree ke kuchh sauvein bhaag se toda[54] vishv mausam vigyaan sangathan (World Meteorological Organization) aur jalavaayu anusandhaan ekak (Climatic Research Unit) dvaara taiyaar kiye gaye andaajon se nishkarsh nikaala gaya ki 2005, 1998 ke baad doosra sabse jiaada garm saal tha[55][56] 1998 mein taapamaan asaamaanya roop se jiaada isliye tha kyoonki us saal al Niñao ke dakshini dolan (El Niñao-Southern Oscillation) ghatit hue the[57]

Anthropogenic utsarjan ke anya pradooshak -visheshakar salfet erosol (aerosol) s-thanda karne wala prabhaav daalte hain kyoonki yeh aati hui soorya ki raushani ko pratibinbit kar dete hain yeh ek aanshik kaaran hai us sheetalan ka jo beesavi sadi ke madhya mein paaya gaya[58] haalaanki praa‍aakrutik parivrtanasheelata ke kaaran bhi thandaapan ho sakta hai.James Hansen (James Hansen) aur unke sahayogiyon ne prastaav rakha hai ki jeevaashm indhan ke jalne se jo padaarth nikalte hain -CO2 aur erosols ne ek doosare prabhaav ko khatm kar diya hai, isliye garmi jiaadaatar gair CO2 greenahaaus gaison ke kaaran hi hai.[59]

Paleoclimatologist William roodeemen (William Ruddiman) maanav ne tark diya ki duniya bhar mein jalavaayu par maanavi prabhaav lagbhag 8000 saal pehle shuroo hua jab insaanon ne krushi ke liye van saaf karne shuroo kar diye aur 5000 saal pehle shuroo hui Asia ke chaaval ki sinchaai ne bhi isame yogadaan diya[60] Ruddiman ki aitihaasik record ki vyaakhya ko mithen ke aankadon ki tulana mein vivaadit bataaya gaya hai[61]

maanav poorv jalavaayu ki bhin‍aanata

antaarkatika mein do sthaanon par liye gaye taapamaan ke aankadon ke karve aur saare vishv ka glaasial barf ki vibhintaaon ka record aaj ki tithi baain or ke graaf .par hai.

pruthvi ne pehle bhi kai baar garmi aur sardi mahasoos ki hai. haal hi ka antaarkatik EPICA (EPICA) aais kor 800000 saal ka lekha-jokha rakhata hai, jisme aath glaasial (interglacial) chakr parikraman bhinnaroop (orbital variations) ke saath diye gaye hain jo vartamaan taapamaanon ke saath tulana karte hain[62]

aaranbhik juraassik (Jurassic) kaal (lag-bhaag 180 karod varsh pehle) mein green house gaison mein vruddhi hone ke kaaran ausat taapamaan 5 °aC (9 °aF).tak bad gaye mukt vishvavidyaalaya (Open University) ke anusandhaan se sanket mile hain ki vaarming ke kaaran chattaanon ki apakshaya (weathering) dar 400 pratishat tak badh gayi is tarah se apakshaya kaarban ko kailseetet (calcite) aur dolomaait (dolomite) mein baaaindh deti hai, CO2 ka star agale 150000 saalon mein vaapis aam star tak aaya[63][64]

mithen ka clathrate compound (clathrate compound)s (the clathrate gun hypothesis (clathrate gun hypothesis)) se achaanak nikaas un kaaranon mein se ek maana jaata hai jiske kaaran bhootakaal mein vaarming hui, isame Permian–Triassic extinction event (Permian–Triassic extinction event) (lag-bhaag 2 karod 51 lakh saal pehle) aur the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum) (lag-bhaag 55 karod saal pehle).

jalavaayu pratimaan

2001 ya usase pehle ki gayi

global vaarming ki ganana, jisme kai tarah ke jalavaayu model (climate model)SRES (SRES) utsarjan paridrushya ke antargat, shaamil kiye gaye hain, yeh maanate hain ki utsarjan ko kam karne ke liye kaarravaai nahi ki jaayegi

21 visadi ke dauraan satah ki garmi ka

bhaugolik vitran HadCM3 (HadCM3) k‍aalaaimet model ke dvaara maapa gaya jabki saamaan‍aaya paridrush‍aaya mein koi v‍aayavasaaya aarthik vikaas aur greenahaaus gas utsarjan ka kaaran maana jaata ho.is aankade mein, vishv star ki vaarming 3.0 °aC (5.4 °aF). se mel khaati hai

vaigyaaniko ne jalavaayu ke computer model (computer models) sahit g‍aalobal vaarming ka adh‍aayayan kiya hai. ye modals drav gatisheelata ke bhautik siddhaanton, vikranasheel hastaantaran (radiative transfer) aur anya prakriyaaon par aadhaarit hain, kati jagaahaaon par saraleekaran kiya gaya hai kyoonki computer ki apni seemaaen hoti hain aur jalyaayu pranaali bahut hi jatil (complexity) hai sare aadhunik jalavaayu model apne mein ek vataavaarneya model liye hote hain aur yeh samudra ke model aur bhoomi tatha samudra par barf ke model ke saath juda hota hai kuchh modelon mein raasaayanik aur jaivik prakriyaaon ke upachaar bhi shammil hote hain[65] yeh model pata lagaate hain ki greenahaaus gaison ka prabhaav agar joda jaae to ek garm jalavaayu praapt hoti hai[66] fir bhi, jab ye dhaarana istemaal ki jaati hai to bhi jalavaayu sanvedanasheelata (climate sensitivity) ka bahut bada rol rahata hai

greenahaaus gaison ki saandrata mein bhavishya ki anishchittaaon ko dh‍aayaan mein rakhate hue aaipeeseesi 21 vi sadi ke ant tak ak chetaavani ki parikalpana karti hai, 1980-1999 ke mukaabale[1] model ka istemaal haal ke jalavaayu parivartan ke kaaranon (causes of recent climate change) ki jaanch karne ke liye bhi kiya gaya hai, iske liye maape hue parivrtanon ki tulana model ke dvaara bataaye gaye parivrtanon ke saath ki jaati hai

jalavaayu ke vartamaan model avlokan ke saath achhi tarah mel khaate hain par jalavaayu ke sabhi pahaluon ki nakl nahi kar paate[67] ye maadal us vaarming jo ki 1910 se 1945 tak hui thi ko achhi tarah samjha nahi paate, ki vah praakrutik parivartan ya maanav prabhaav ke kaaran hui ; fir bhi, ve yeh sujhaav dete hain ki 1975 ke baad se hone waali vaarming green house gaison (greenhouse gas) ke utsarjan ke kaaran hi hai

vaishvik jalavaayu model ke anumaan un greenahaaus gas paridrushyon se prabhaavit hote hain jinko aaipeeseesi (utsarjan par vishesh report (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)) (SRES) ne apni report mein darshaaya hai chaahe saamanya na ho par model mein kaarban chakr (carbon cycle) ka anukaran bhi kiya jaata hai, yeh jyaadaatar sakaaraatmak pratikriya darshaata hai, chaahe yeh pratikriya (A2 SRES paridrushya ke antargat, pratikriyaaon mein 20 aur 200 peepeeem CO2 ka antar hota hai) anishchit hai kuchh paryavekshan adhyayanon se ek sakaaraatmak pratikriya[68][69][70]} dekhne ko mili hai.

May 2008 mein yeh bhavishyavaani ki gayi ki " vishv ka taapamaan chaahe agale dashak mein na bade kyoonki uttari atalaantik aur prashaant ushnakatibandheeya kshatron mein jo jalavaayu parivartan honge ve asthaayi taur par anthropogenik vaurming ko kam kar deinge " yeh bhavishyavaani samudra ke taapamaan ki ganana par aadhaarit tha[71]

vartamaan peedhi ke model mein baadalon ko darshaaya jaana anishchitta ka ek bada kaaran hai, yadyapi is par kaarya kiya ja raha hai[72]

haal ke ek adhyayan ke dvaara Dawood dagalas (David Douglass), John kristi (John Christy) aur binyaameen Pearson aur fred gaayak (Fred Singer) ne paaya ki agar ham vaastavik jalavaayu modelon ke saath 22 pramukh vaishvik jalavaayu modelon ki tulana karein to yeh paaya jaata hai ki yeh ushnakatibandheeya troposphere mein hue parivrtanon par khare nahi baithate .lekhak is baat par gaur karte hain ki unki parinaam haal hi mein hue prakaashanon ke parinaamo se mel nahi khaata[73]

apekshit evam aashaateet prabhaav

virl record yeh bhi darshaate hain ki himnad shuruaati 1800s se peechhe hat rahe hain 1950 mein himnad ki barf ka maapan shuroo hua aur report WGMS (WGMS) aur NSIDC ko pesh ki gayi (NSIDC).

yadyapi vishesh mausam ghatnaaon ko global vaarming ke saath jodna mushkil hai, fir bhi vishv ke taapamaan mein vruddhi se vyaapak parivartan (changes) sahit barf peechhe hatna (glacial retreat), aarkatik shrinkage (Arctic shrinkage) aur duniya bhar mein samudra ke star vruddhi (sea level rise) ho sakti hai.avakshepan (precipitation) ki maatr mein parivartan baadh aur sookhe (drought) ko janam de sakta hai. charam mausam ki ghatnaaon ki aavrutti evam treevata mein bhi parivartan ho sakte (extreme weather) hai. anya prabhaavon mein krushi paidaavaar mein kami, alaava vyaapaar ke nae maargon[74] ka judna, chhoti garmiyaan, streamflow (streamflow), prajaatiyon ka khtam (extinctions) hona aur rogon ke vektar (disease vectors) mein vruddhi shaamil hain

praakrutik vaataavaran (natural environment) aur maanav jeevan (human life) par kuchh asar kuchh had tak global vaarming ki vajah se maane ja rahe hain IPCC ki ek report ke anusaar glacier ka peechhe hatna (glacier retreat), ice shelf ka khtam hona (ice shelf disruption) jaisa ki Larsen Ice Shelf (Larsen Ice Shelf), mein hua samudra ke star ka badna (sea level rise), baarish mein parivartan aur bahut hi khraab mausam (extreme weather events), global vaarming[75] ke kaaran maane ja rahe hain samagr paitarn, teevrata aur aavrutti ke liye parivartan sambhaavit hain, yeh kehna mushkil hai ki yeh sab global vaarming ke kaaran hai. anya prabhaavon mein shaamil hain kuchh kshetron mein paani ki kami, kuchh mein avakshepan ka badna, parvat snowpack mein parivartan aur garam mausam ke kaaran aur svaasthya ke pratikool prabhaav[76]

badhti hui mauton, displacements aur aarthik nuksaan, jo ki ativaadi mausam (extreme weather) ke kaaran sambhaavit hain, badhati hui janasainkhya (growing population) ke kaaran aur bhi badatar ho sakte hain . haalaanki sheetoshn kshetr mein iske kuchh faide bhi ho sakte hain jaise ki thand[77] ki vajah se kam mautein hona . aaipeeseesi teesari moolyaankan report (IPCC Third Assessment Report) ke liye dviteeya kaaryakaari samooh dvaara .[75] banaai gayi report mein sambhaavit prabhaav ki samajh aur inka saaraansh paaya ja sakta hai. nai IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) ke anusaar, aisa pramaan milta hai ki utari prashaant mahaasaagar mein 1970 se tropical cyclone (tropical cyclone) ki tej gatividhi pai gayi hai Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)), ke sandhrb mein, par lambi doori ke prabhaavon ka pata lagana, khaas kar ke upagrah gananaaon se pehle, bahut mushkil hai saaraansh yeh bhi spasht naheen karta ki ushnakatibandheeya chakravaaton ki duniya bhar mein vaarshik sankhya mein koi sambandh hai ya nahi[1]

kuchh aur sambhaavit asar hain samudra ka 1990 se 2100[78] ke beech badhna, kheti par asar (repercussions to agriculture), thermohaline sirkuleshan ka dheema hona (possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation), ojon parat (ozone layer) mein kami chakravaaton aur[79] khraab mausam ki (hurricanes and extreme weather events) teevrata mein ijaafa (par yeh der baad aaeainge), mahaasaagar pH (lowering) ka neecha hona (pH) aur maleriya aur dengue bukhaar jaisi bimaariyon ka failana . ek adhyayan ki bhavishyavaani ke anusaar 2050 tak 18% se 35% pashu aur paudhon ki prajaatiyaaain vilupt (extinct) ho jaaeaingi, yeh baat 1103 pashu aur paudhon ke ek namoone par aadhaarit hai[80] lekin, kuchh hi yantravat adhyayanon ne jalavaayu parivartan[81] ke kaaran jeevon vilupt hone ka anumaan lagaaya hai aur ek shuddh to yeh darshaata hai ki vilupt hone ka anumaan anishchit hain .[82]

global vaarming kase bhaugolik kshamata tatha usaki prachandata mein vruddhi hone ki aasha hai. ushnakatibandheeya beemaariyaan (tropical disease)[83] sampoorn Europe, uttari amareeka tatha uttari Asia[84] mein jalavaayu parivartan keedo se paida hone vaale rogon mein badhotari kar sakta hai jaise maleriya{

aarthik

kuchh arthashaastriyon ne anumaan karne ki koshish ki hai ki duniya bhar ke jalavaayu parivartan se kul kitni aarthik kshati hogi abhi tak is tarah ke anumaan koi nirnaayak nishkarsh nahi nikal paae hain, 100 anumaanon ke ek sarvekshan mein yeh paaya gaya ki aankade Amreeki daularaprati tan kaarban -10 (teesi) (ameriki dollar prati tan kaarban daaioksaaid -3) lekar Amreeki dollar350/tC (95 ameriki dollar prati tan kaarban daaioksaaid) tak hain, inki ausat 43 ameriki dollar prati tan kaarban (12 ameriki dollar prati tan kaarban daaioksaaid) .[77] niklati hai.

Stern Review (Stern Review) sambhaavit aarthik prabhaav par ek vyaapak roop se prachaarit report hai ; yeh sujhaav deti hai ki duniya bhar mein atyadhik kathor mausam kam ho sakta hai, kul domestic product ek pratishat tak bad sakta hai aur buri se buri haalat mein prati vyakti (per capita) khapat 20 pratishat gir sakti hai.[85] is report ki paddhati aur nishkarsh ki kai arthashaastriyon dvaara aalochna ki hai, mukhyat: isame jo dhaaranaae hain unki jaise ki chhoot (discounting) aur iski sthitiyon ke vikalp,[86] jabki anya ne aarthik jokhim ki ganana ka samarthan kiya hai, chaahe ve unki sankhayon se sahamat nahi hai[87][88]

praarambhik adhyayan darshaate hain ki global vaarming ko kam karne ki laagat aur laabh mote taur par ek doosare se tulana ke yogya hain[89]

sanyukt raashtra paryaavaran kaaryakram (United Nations Environment Programme) (yooenaipi) ke anusaar, aarthik kshetron jinko kathinaaiyon ka saamana karne ki sambhaavana hain, uname shaamil hain bainkas, krushi (agriculture), parivhan aur anya .[90] vikaasasheel desh jo ki krushi par nirbhar karte hain global vaarming dvaara khaas taur se prabhaavit honge .[91]

anukoolan aur shaman

mausam vaigyaaniko ke beech jo ek tarah ka vyaapak samjhauta (broad agreement) hai ki vaishvik taapamaan mein vruddhi hogi, ne kuchh raashtras, raajya (state)s, nigam (corporation)s aur vyaktiyon ko gatividhi karne par majaboor kiya hai ki global vaarming ko kam kiya jaae ya use samaayojit kiya jaae .bahut se paryaavaran samooh global vaarming ke virooddh vyaktigat kaaryon (individual action) ko protsaahit karte hain kintu aisa praaya: upabhokta evam kshetreeya sangathanon dvaara sampann hota hai. kuchh ne sujhaav diya hai ki duniya bhar mein jeevaashm indhan ke utpaadan par ek kota (quota) hona chaahiye kyoonki ve maanate hain ki iska seedha sambandh CO2 ke utsarjan[92][93] se hai.

jalavaayu parivartan par kaarobaari kaararvaai (business action on climate change) bhi hui hai jaise ki oorja dakshata ko badaana aur vaikalpik indhan (alternative fuels) ka istemaal karna .haal hi mein viksit ki gayi avadhaarana yeh hai ki greenahaaus gas utsarjan vyaapaar (emissions trading) ki jaae, isame companiyaan sarkaar ke saath mil ke utsarjan ko kaab

global vaarming ko kaaboo karne ke liye vishv ka praathamik antararaashtreeya samjhauta hai kyoto protokaul (Kyoto Protocol), ek sanshodhan UNFCCC (UNFCCC) ka, jo 1997 mein saamane aaya .is protokol ke antargat ab 160 se adhik desh aur vishv star par vaishvik greenahaaus gas utsarjan 55 pratishat bhaag hai.[94] keval sanyukt raajya America aur kajaakastaan ne is sandhi ki pushti naheen ki hai, jabki amareeka green house gaison ko paida karne wala (largest emitter) sabse bada desh hai. yeh sandhi 2012 mein samaapt ho rahi hai aur antararaashtreeya vaarta May 2007 (May 2007) mein shuroo ho rahi hain, us sandhi par jo maujooda sandhi ki jagah legi .[95]

America arthavyavastha ko bhaari nuksaan aur 80 pratishat duniya jaise ki cheen aur Bhaarat ka sandhi mein se chhoda jaana ameriki raashtrapati (U.S. President)George dablyoo ko bush (George W. Bush) ka kyoto protokaul ke liye kehna hai kehna hai ki yeh anuchit hai aur aprabhaavi hai[96] bush ne oorja praudyogiki ko protsaahit diya hai,[97] aur sanyukt raajya America ke bheetar vibhinn raajya aur nagar sarkaaron ne kyoto protokol ko laagoo karne ke prayaas shuroo kar diye hain ;is ka ek udaaharan hai kshetreeya greenahaaus gas pahal (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative).[98]America vigyaan jalavaayu parivartan kaaryakram (U.S. Climate Change Science Program) ek sanyukt kaaryakram hai jisme 20 se adhik Amreeki sangheeya agencyon ki bhaagedaari hai

cheen aur Bhaarat, haalaanki iske praavadhaanon se achhoote hain, ne kyoto protokol ki vikaasasheel deshon (developing countries) ke roop mein iski tasdeek ki haihaal ke kuchh adhyayan[99] ke anusaar cheen ne green house gaison ke utsarjan mein amareeka ko bhi maat de di hai. cheeni Premier ven jiyaabaao (Wen Jiabao) ne apne desh se kaha hai ki vah pradooshan aur global vaarming hai.[100] se nipatne ke liye apne prayaas dugane kar de .

aaipeeseesi ka kaarya samooh III global vaarming ki laagat aur laabh ke vibhinn drushtikonon ke baare mein report banaane ke liye 2007 ki aaipeeseesi chautha moolyaankan report (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) mein yeh nishkarsh neekaala gaya ki koi ek praudyogiki ya sector global vaarming ko khatm karne ke liye poori tarah se jimmedaar nahi hai. ve paate hain ki praudyogiki ke vibhinn kshetron, jaise oorja aapoorti (energy supply), parivhan (transport)ation, udyog (industry) aur krushi, mein kuchh pramukh prathaaon ko laagoo kiya jaana chaahiye .anumaan hai ki 2030 tak kaarban daaioksaaid samakaksh (carbon dioxide equivalent) ka sthireekaran, 445 aur 710 ppm ke beech, sakal ghareloo utpaad.[101] mein 0.6 se 3 pratishat tak kami ya ijaafa la sakta hai. kaarya samooh III ke anusaar 2 degree celcius tak agar badhte taapamaan ko rokana hai to viksit deshon ke ek samooh ko apne utsarjan ko kam karna hoga aur 2020 tak utsarjan 1990 ke utsarjan se kam hona chaahiye (sabse adhik maane jaane vaale kshetron mein 1990 ke s‍aataron se 10 se 40 pratishat tak kam) aur 2050 tak usase bhi kam (1990 ke s‍aataron se 40 se 90 pratishat tak kam), chaahe vikaasasheel desh kaafi katauti kyooain na karein.[102]

saamaajik aur raajaneetik bahas

2000 mein

prati vyakti greenahaaus gas utsarjan, jismein bhoomi ka upayog (land-use change)

parivartan shaamil hai. 2000 mein

prati desh greenahaaus gas utsarjan jismein bhoomi ka upayog

parivartan hai.

vaigyaanik nishkarsh ke prachaar ke kaaran duniya mein raajaneetik aur aarthik bahas chid gayi hai.[103] gareeb kshetron, khaaskar Africa, par bada jokhim dikhaai deta hai jabki unke utsarjan viksit deshon ki tulana mein kaafi kam rahe hain .[104] iske saath hi, vikaasasheel desh (developing country) ki kyoto protokaul (Kyoto Protocol) ke praavadhaanon se chhoot sanyukt raajya America aur Australia, dvaara nakaari gayi hai aur isko America ke anusamarthan[105] ka ek mudda banaaya gaya hai. pashchimi duniya (Western world) mein sanyukt raajya America ki tulana mein hai.[106][107] ki tulana mein Europe mein yeh vichaar ki maanav ka jalavaayu par bahut prabhaav padta hai jiaada balavaan hai.

jalavaayu parivartan ka mudda ek naya vivaad le aaya hai ki greenahaaus gas (greenhouse gas) ke audyogik (industrial)utsarjan (emissions) O kam karna faaidemand hai ya us par hone wala kharch (costs) jiada nukasaanadeh hai kai deshon mein charcha ki gayi hai ki vaikalpik oorja sroton (alternative energy sources) ko apnaane mein kitna kharch aaega aur usaka kitna laabh hoga[108].pratiyogi Enterprise sansthaan (Competitive Enterprise Institute) aur ExxonMobil (ExxonMobil) jaisi kampanion ne yeh kaha hai ki hamein jalavaayu ki jiada buri haalat ki kalpana kar ke aise kadam nahi uthaane hain jo bahut jiada kharcheele hon.[109][110][111][112] isi tarah, paryaavaran ki vibhinn saarvajanik lobby aur kai logon ne abhiyaan shuroo kiye hain jo jalavaayu parivartan ka jokhim (risks of climate change) par jor daalte hain aur kade niyantran karne ki vakaalat karte hain .jeevaashm indhan ki kuchh companiyon ne apne prayaason ko haal ke varshon[113] mein kam kiya hai yaan global vaarming[114] ke liye neetiyon ki vakaalat ki hai.

vivaad ka ek aur mudda hai ki ubharati hui arthavyavasthaaon (emerging economies) jaise Bhaarat aur cheen se kaisi ummeed ki jaani chaahiye ki veh apne utsarjan ko kitna kam karein .haal ki report ke anusaar, cheen ke sakal raashtreeya CO 2 utsarjan (gross national CO2 emissions) amareeka se jiada ho sakte hain, par cheen ne kaha hai ki prati vyakti utsarjan (per capita emissions) amareeka[115] se paaainch guna kam hai isliye us par yeh bandish nahi honi chaahiye[116] Bhaarat ne bhi isi baat ko doharaaya hai jise k‍aayoto pratibandhon se chhoot praapt hai aur jo audyogik utsarjan ka sabse bada srot hai.[117] However, the U.S. contends that if they must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same.[118]

jalavaayu sambandhit mudde

global vaarming ke sambandh mein aksar kai tarah ke mudde uthaae jaate hain. inmein se ek mahaasaagareeya amleekaran hai. (ocean acidification) vaataavaran mein badhti CO2 CO ki maatra se CO 2 ki maatra mahaasaagaron mein bhi bad jaati hai.[119] CO2 samudra mein paani ke saath pratikriya karta hai aur kaarbonik esid (carbonic acid), banaata hai jisse amleekaran mein vruddhi hoti hai mahaasaagar ki satah ka peeech (pH) anumaan hai ki 2004 tak 8.14 hi rah gaya hai jab ki audyogik yug ki shuruaat mein yeh 8.25 tha[120] iske aur bhi jyaada ghatne ke aasaar hain, 2100 tak yeh 0.14 se 0.5 tak kam ho sakta hai k‍aayonki mahaasaagar aur jyaada CO2.[1][121] sokh leinge. choonki jeevadhaari hain aur paaritantron ne apne aap ko kam pH par dhaala hai, isse unke vilupt hone (extinction) ka khtara badh gaya hai, CO2 ka badhna khaadya jaaliyaaain (food webs) aur manaav samaaj, jo ki samudra par nirbhar karta hai, ko khatre mein daal sakta hai.[122]

dharati par prakaash ke aane ne, jisko irradiance (irradiance) kehte hain ho sakta hiya ki 20 ve dashak mein global vaarming (Global dimming) ko kam kiya ho, kyoonki tab kam prakaash dharati par aaya tha 1960 se 1990 tak maanav nirmit erosols ne is asar ko aur bhi badhaaya vaigyaaniko ne kaha hai ki 66-90 pratishat vish‍aavaas ke saath kaha hai ki maanav nirmit erosols, jvaalaamukhi gatividhi sahit global vaarming ko kuchh kam karte hain aur greenahaaus gaisein vaarming ko abhi tak jitna dekha gaya hai usase aur adhik badhaaeaingi yadi ye kam karne vaale kaarak na ho.[1]

ojon rikteekaran (Ozone depletion) jisme pruthvi ki straitosfiyr (stratosphere) mein ojon ki kami ho jaati hai, ne global vaarming ko badhaava diya hai yadyapi in kshetron ke sambandh (areas of linkage) hain, par donon ke beech ke sambandh ko majaboot naheen kaha ja sakta .

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sandarbh

  1. a aa i E u oo A ai O
  2. 2001 ke sanyukt bayaan par hastaakshar karne waali vaigyaanik akaadamiyon mein Australia, Belgium (Belgium), braajeel, Canada, kairibiyaai (the Caribbean), cheen, France, Germany, Bhaarat, Indonesia, Ireland (Ireland), Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, sveedan aur UK hain. 2005 bayaan mein Japan, roos aur yooes ko bhi shaamil kar liya gaya tha. 2007 bayaan mein meksikon aur dakshini Africa bhi ismein jaud diye gaye the. vyaavasaayik samitiyon mein Amreeki mausam vigyaan samiti, Amreeki bhoobhautiki sangh, Amreeki bhautiki sans‍aathaan, Amreeki khagoleeya samiti, vigyaan ki pragati ke liye Amreeki sangh, London ki bhaugolik samiti ka ‍atereeteegraafi aayog, amareeka ki bhaugolik samiti, Amreeki rasaayan samiti tatha engineers asas‍aatateliyaar
  3. robok, ailan tatha k‍aalaaiv openahemar, edsa2003 jvaalaamukhi aur vaayumandal, bhoobhautiki monograaf 139, Amreeki bh‍aabhautiki sangh, Washington deesi, 360 peepi
  4. dhyaan dein ki greenahaaus prabhaav lagbhag 33 degree celcius (59 °aF) ki vruddhi karta hai aur yeh vruddhi black baudi poorvaanumaanon ke sandharbh mein hai na ki asal mein 33 degree celcius (91 °aF) hai, jo ki jyaada hai satah ka ausat taapamaan lagbhag 14 degree celcius hai (57 °aF) .yeh bhi dhyaan dein ki donon faarenahaait aur celcius taapamaan do mahatavapoorn nambaron tak hi darshaae jaate hain chaahe roopaantaran formula 3 number darshaata hai I
  5. Neftel, A, E.moor, H.osagar tatha beestauffer (1985) ."pichhli do shataabdiyon mein vaayumandaleeya kaarban daai aaksaaid mein badhotari ke liye dhruveeya barf ke chhidron ke saakshya hain "prakruti 315:45-47 .
  6. dau॰ Pieter Tans (3 May (3 May)2008) " vaarshik vruddhi CO2 til ansh (peepeeem) " ke liye 1959-2007raashtreeya samudreeya vaayumandal aur prashaasan (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) pruthvi pranaali anusandhaan prayogashaala, global nigraani vibhaag (atirikt vivran.)
  7. a aa
  8. jalavaayu parivartan pratyutrar par panel, jalavaayu shodh samiti, raashtreeya shodh parish‍aad 2004, jalavaayu parivartan pratyuttaron ki samajh
  9. ojon itihaas
  10. lokkvood aur frohlichvh ko uttar- soorya ki jalavaayu forsing mein lagaataar bhoomika - Spacecenter
  11. is kaagaj ka preeprint yahaan paaya ja sakta hai
  12. kaaryakaari samooh ek, 2007 IPPC ka khand 3.2.2.2, prushth 243
  13. a aa
  14. a aa
  15. glogal vaarming se rog fail sakte hain, jaise jaise taapamaan badhata hai vaise vaise adhyayan : rogajanakon ka nae kshetron par hamla ho sakta hai. seebeebi samaachaar
  16. global vaarming se maleriya poshit hota hai.
  17. Tol aur Yohe (2006) " Stern ki ek sameeksha " vishv arthashaastr 7(4) : 233-50 .vishv arthashaastr mein anya aalochanaaon ka bhi avlokan karein.'''
  18. jalavaayu vaarta aur antararaashtreeya baadhaaon ka saamana , aarthar dvaara Max, associated press, 5/14/07 .
  19. sangh raajya ka sambodhan,2008-01-28 ko praapt kiya gaya ." sanyukt raajya America hamaari oorja suraksha aur vaishvik jalavaayu parivartan ko majaboot banaane ke liye vachanabaddh hai. aur in lakshyon ko poora karne ka sabse achha tareeka hai ki amareeka saaf aur urala ko kam istemaal karne waali praudyogiki viksit kare .
  20. ; ; ;
  21. cheen aur America ko jalavaayu par netrutv karna chaahiye, Michael kaase, associated press, via newsvine.com 12/7/07 .
  22. Bhaarat ke himnad gambhir vaurming ka sandesh dete hain , Somni senagupta, 7/17/07, New York times ke dvaara oregonlive.com .
  23. cheeni ne kiya jalavaayu masuda ka khandan , BBC, 5/1/07 ; America ke liye yuddh mein kaarban kaips, aankhein aur prayaas cheen par focus, steven Mufson, Washington post, 6/6/07 .

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