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arthashaastr mein, apasfeeti vastuon aur sevaaon ke saamaanya moolya ke star mein giraavat hai.[1] apasfeeti tabhi hoti hai jab vaarshik mudraasfeeti ki dar shoonya pratishat ki dar se bhi neechi gir jaati hai (nakaaraatmak mudraasfeeti dar), jiske falasvaroop mudra ke asli moolya mein vruddhi ho jaati hai - isse ek kreta usi raashi se adhik maal khareedne ki suvidha pa jaata hai. ise avasfeeti, mudraasfeeti ke dar mein kami (arthaat mudraasfeeti ki dar ghat to jaati hai, lekin fir bhi sakaaraatmak hi bani rahati hai), samajhne ki bhool naheen ki jaani chaahiye. [2] samay ke saath-saath jaise-jaise mudraasfeeti mudra ke asli moolya mein giraavat laati hai, iske theek vipreet, apasfeeti mudra ke vaastavik moolya mein- kaaryaatmak mudra (evam lekha ki maudrik ikaai mein) raashtreeya athva kshetreeya arthavyavastha mein vruddhi laati hai.

vartamaan samay mein, mukhyadhaara ke arthashaastriyon ka aamtaur par maanana hai ki apasfeetikaari jatiltaaon ke khatre ((neeche varnit))[3] ke kaaran aadhunik arthavyavastha mein apasfeeti ek samasya hai. apasfeeti ko aarthik mandi aur vishvavyaapi mandi se bhi joda jaata hai, jaise ki bank jamaakartaaon ki adaayagi mein chook jaate hain. iske atirikt, arthavyavastha ke sthireekaran mein apasfeeti maudrik neeti nirdhaaran mein ek aisi prakriya ke tahat rookaavat paida karti hai jise likviditi trap kehte hain. haalaanki, aitihaasik roop se apasfeeti ki sabhi ghatnaaen, kamjor aarthik vikaas ke daure se judi naheen hain.[4]

anukram

paaramparik shabdaavali

paaramparik arthashaastriyon ke dvaara apasfeeti shabd ka prayog mudra ki aapoorti evam rin mein giraavat ko sandarbhit karne ke liye vaikalpik arth mein kiya jaata tha; kuchh arthashaastriyon ne jinmein ostriyaai vichaaradhaara ke arthashaastri shaamil hain, abhi bhi is shabd ka prayog isi arth mein karte hain.[5] ye donau arth ek doosare ke saath sambandhit hain, kyonki mudra ki aapoorti (mudra ki gati ke aparivrtit bane rahane ke poorvaanumaan ke saath) saamaanya moolya star mein giraavat ka sambhaavit kaaran ban jaati hai.

apasfeeti ke prabhaav

IS/LM model mein (arthaat aay aur bachat ka santulan/nakadi tarajeeh tatha mudra aapoorti santulan model), maal aur byaaj ke liye aapoorti aur maang vakr rekha mein parivartan, visheshakar maang ke star mein kul giraavat ke kaaran apasfeeti aati hai. arthaat poori arthavyavastha mein kitna kraya karne ki ichha mein kitni giraavat I hai aur maal ki keematon mein kitni vruddhi hone ja rahi hai. maal ki keematein gir rahi hai is kaaran, upabhogataaon ko khareedaari mein tab tak ke liye vilamb ka protsaahan praapt hota hai jab tak ki keematon mein aur giraavat na aae, badle mein yeh samagr aarthik gatividhi ko apasfeetikr ghumaav dete hue kam kar deta hai.

choonki is nishkriya kshamata se nivesh mein bhi giraavat aati hai, falasvaroop aage chalakar bhi kul maang mein katauti ka kaaran ban jaati hai. yeh apasfeetikaarak ghumaav hai. kul maang ki giraavat ka pratyuttar utsaahavardhak hai ya to mudra ki aapoorti mein vruddhi ke maarft keindreeya bank se hon, ya fir raajakosheeya praadhikaari ke dvaara maang mein vruddhi kar niji companiyon ke liye upalabdh byaaj dar par rin lekar ho.

mudraasfeeti ka vipreet prabhaav padta hai aur is prakaar pehle hi vyaapaarik mandi aa jaati hai.[krupaya uddharan jodein] udaaharan ke liye, in aavashyak vastuon ki keematein 2008 saal ki vyaapaarik mandi se pehle hi aasmaan chhoone lageen.

haal filhaal ki aarthik vichaaradhaara mein, apasfeeti jokhim se judi hui hai: jahaan parisampattiyon par jokhim-samaayojit pratilaabh neeche utar kar nakaaraatmak ho jaate hain, niveshak aur kreta nivesh karne yahaan tak ki sabse thos pratibhootiyon mein bhi nivesh karne ki bajaay mudra batoreinge aur jama kareinge. isse ek aisi saiddhaantik paristhiti paida ho sakti hai, jispar chal nidhi ke jaalaki vyaavahaarik sambhaavana par kaafi bahas ho chuki hai. ek keindreeya bank, saamaanyataya mudra ke liye rinaatmak byaaj dhaarya naheen kar sakta hai aur yahaan tak ki shoonya byaaj ke prabhaav se aksar thode oonche byaaj daron ki tulana mein kam utsaahavardhak prabhaav paida ho jaatein hain. aatanrik arthavyavatha pranaali mein aisa isliye hota hai ki shoonya byaaj dhaarya karne ka arth sarkaari pratibhootiyon par shoonya return paana hoga, athva alpaavadhi ki paripkvata par rinaatmak return. khuli arthavyavastha mein, yeh chal vyaapaar ko janm deti hai aur aayaat ke liye oonchi keematein nirdhaarit kar niryaat ko usi darje tak badhaava diye bina mudra ka avmoolyan karti hain.

mudraavaadi siddhaant mein, apasfeeti ka sambandh nirantar ghatate hue mudra veg athva lenaden ki sankhya se hai. iske liye mudra ki aapoorti ke naatakeeya sankuchan ko jimmedaar thaharaaya gaya hai, shaayad ghatati hui vinimay dar ke pratyuttar mein, athva svarnamaanak ya anya baahya maudrik aadhaarbhoot aavashyakataaon ke pratyuttar mein.

apasfeeti ko aamtaur par rinaatmak samjha jaata hai, kyonki iske kaaran udhaarakartaaon aur arthasulabh aastiyon ke dhaarakon se sampatti ka hastaantaran ho jaata hai, jisse sanchayakartaaon evam mudra tatha arthasulabh parisampattiyon ke dhaarakon ko laabh pahunchata hai. is arth mein yeh mudraasfeeti ke theek vipreet hai (athva charam, uchch sfeeti ki dasha mein), jo mudra dhaarakon evam udhaaradaataaon (sanchayakartaaon) ke liye udhaarakartaaon tatha alpaavadhi khapat ke paksh mein kar lagaane ke samaan hai. aadhunik arthavyavastha mein, maang mein giraavat (jo aksar oonchi byaaj dar ke kaaran aati hai) ke kaaran apasfeeti aati hai aur yeh mandi se judi hoti hai aur (shaayad hi kabheen) deerghakaalik aarthik mandi se judi ho.

aadhunik arthavyavastha mein, rin ki shartein deerghaayit ho gain hain aur rin ke liye vittaposhan sabhi prakaar ke niveshon ke liye aam hai, ab to apasfeeti se jude arthadand bhi kaafi badh gaye hain. choonki apasfeeti nivesh ko nirootsaahit karti hain, kyonki bhavishya mein hone vaale laabh par jokhim uthaane ka koi sangat kaaran naheen hai jabki laabh ki pratyaasha hi nakaaraatmak hai aur bhavishya ki keematon ki apeksha karna ummeed se kam hai, is kaaran hi aksar kul maang mein achaanak giraavat aa jaati hai. mudraasfeeti ke 'chhipe jokhim bina' mudra ko bas pakade rahana, ise na to kharch karna aur na nivesh karna, vivekapoorn ho sakta hai.

baharahaal, apasfeeti durlabh mudra ki arthavyavastha mein svaabhaavik dasha hai jab mudra ki aapoorti ki dar mein vruddhi sakaaraatmak janasankhya ki vruddhi ki dar ke anuroop vyavasthit rakhi jaati hai. jab aisa ghatata hai, tab prati vyakti par durlabh mudra ki upalabdh raashi ghat jaati hai, nateejatan mudra aur bhi dushpraapya ho jaati hai; aur is kaaran mudra ki pratyek ikaai ki kraya karne ki kshamata badh jaati hai. 19veen sadi ka antim bhaag in paristhitiyon mein aarthik vikaas ke saath-saath anvarat aati hui apasfeeti ka udaaharan pesh karta hai.

jab utpaadan ki kshamata mein sudhaar ke saamaanau ki kul keemat mein kami paida kar deta hai tab bhi apasfeeti ghatit hoti hai. aamtaur par utpaadan ki kshamata mein sudhaar ka kaaran yeh hota hai ki vastuon aur sevaaon ke aarthik nirmaata utpaadan mein sudhaar ke falasvaroop munaafe ki margin ki badhottri ke vaayade se abhiprerit hote hai. baajaar mein pratiyogita aksar un utpaadakon ko unakein maalon ki munhamaangi keemat ko kam karne ke liye prerit karti hai jo inmein se laagat bachat ke bhaag ka kam se kam kuchh ansh usame lagaaen. jab aisa hota hai, upabhokta un vastuon ke liye kam bhugataan karte hai aur iske falasvaroop apasfeeti ho jaati hai, kyonki kraya karne ki kshamata badh chuki hoti hai.

jab kisi ki mudra ki kraya karne ki kshamata mein vruddhi laabhaprad lagti hai, yeh vaastav mein kathinaai paida kar sakta hai jab kisi ke nivl moolya ka bada hissa arthasulabh astiyo mein jaise ki makaan, jameen tatha doosare roopon mein niji sampattiyon mein laga hota hai. yeh krj ke bojh ko bhi badhaava deta hai choonki - apasfeeti ki kuchh mahattvapoorn avadhi ke pashchaat - koi karj ki seva ke liye bhugataan karta hai to yeh kraya karne ki ek badi raashi ko darshaata hai na ki krj jab pehli baar udbhoot hua tha. nateejatan, apasfeeti ko kisi rin byaaj dar ki chhaaya ke pravardhan ke roop mein bhi maana ja sakta hai. agar sanyukt raajya America ki bhayaavah mandi (great dipreshan) ke dauraan, apasfeeti ka ausat 10% prativrsh ho jaata hai, to 0% par rin bhi anaakarshak ho jaata hai kyonki ise 10% ke adhik laagat moolya par prativrsh chukaaya jaana aavashayak ho jaata hai. kyonki

saamaanya paristhiti ke antargat, fed evam anya adhikaansh keindreeya bank alpaavadhi byaaj dar ke liye ek lakshya sthaapit karne ke liye sanyukt raajya America mein sangheeya koshon ki dar raatonraat nirdhaarit karne - evam khule poonji baajaar mein pratibhootiyon ki khareed aur bikri kar in lakshyon ko praapt karne ke liye neetiyon ko laagoo karte hain. jab alpakaalik byaaj dar shoonya par pahunch jaati hai, keindreeya bank ab apni saamaanya byaaj dar ko ghataakar apni neeti mein lacheelaapan naheen la sakte hain.

mudra ki aapoorti ke viniyman ki saamaanya padhdatiyaan aprabhaavi ho sakti hain, yahaan tak ki alpaavadhik byaaj dar ko shoonya kar dene par bhi parinaamasvaroop "vaastavik " byaaj dar adhik hi rahegi; at: mudra ki aapoorti mein vruddhi ke liye anya yuktiyon, jaise ki parisampattiyon ki khareed athva maatraatmak sahajata (mudra ka mudran), ko kaaragaar banaana hoga. sanyukt raajya America ke Federal reserve ke vartamaan adhyaksh, ben barnaanke ne, san 2002 mein kaha, "mudra ka paryaapt ant: kshepan antat: hamesha hi vipreet apasfeeti utpann karega."[6]

nakad dhan ke samarthakon ka tark hai ki ki agar kisi arthavyavastha mein "sakhtiyaan" na ho to, apasfeeti ke svaagat yogya prabhaav padne chaahiye, kyonki keematon mein kami karne se arthavyavastha ke prayaas ko anya gatividhi vaale kshetron mein sthaanaantarit kiya ja sakta hai, is prakaar arthavyavastha ke kul utpaad mein vruddhi ho sakti hai. is siddhaant ki kuchh arthashaastreeyon ne aalochna ki hai, jo yeh maanate hai ki agar sakhtiyaan naheen hongi to na hi mudraasfeeti ka aur na hi apasfeeti ka ullekhaneeya prabhaav padega.

choonki apasfeeti ki avadhiyaan unka samarthan karti hain, jo unke liye mudra dhaaran karte hain jinke paas mudra hai hi naheen, tulana aksar badhti hui lokalubhaav bhaavana ki samayaavadhiyon se ki jaati hai, kyonki 19veen sadi ke ant tak sanyukt raajya America ke janavaadiyon ne durlabh mudra ke maanakon par aadhaarit adhik sfeetikaarak (kyoki upalabdhata ki prachurata thi) chaandi ke dhaatu ki mudraaon mein karna chaaha.

apasfeetikr chakr

apasfeetikr chakr ek ऎsi avastha hain jab keematon mein giraavat utpaad ko ghata deti hai, jo badle mein vetan aur maang ko bhi kam kar deti hai jisse aage chalakar bhi moolya mein giraavat aati hai.[7] choonki saamaanya moolya-star mein katautiyaan apasfeeti kahalaateen hain, at: apasfeetikr chakr tabhi paida hota hai jab keematon mein katauti khatarnaak chakr ko janm deti hai jahaan samasya swayam hi apne aapko badhaane ka kaaran ban jaati hai. kuchh log apasfeetikr chakr ko hi mahaan mandi ki vajah maanate hain. apasfeetikr chakr sachmuch hi vivaadaaspad roop se ghatit hote hain.

apasfeetikr chakr 19veen sadi ke vivaadon aam vivaadon ki bharabhaar se vyutpann samashti arthashaastr ka aadhunik sanskaran hai. isse sambandhit doosari vichaaradhaara iraving fishr ka siddhaant hai ki atyaadhik rin anvarat apasfeeti ka kaaran ban sakti hai.

ati-mudraasfeeti ke prati pratikriya

agar ati mudra-sfeeti mudra ko nasht karti hai, to log anya mudraaon mein apni bachat ko bachaane ki or avilanb agrasar ho jaaenge jis kaaran un anya mudraaon mein bhi apasfeeti aa jaaegi. vaikalpik roop se, ati mudra-sfeeti laane waali neetiyon ko agar achaanak ulat diya jaaya, to sankshipt samay ke liye apasfeeti aa sakti hai kyonki tab tak logon mein us mudra ke prati aastha utpann ho jaaegi.

apasfeeti ke kaaran

arthashaastr ki mukhyadhaara mein maal ki maang aur aapoorti tatha mudra ki maang aur aapoorti ke sanyojan se apasfeeti utpann ho sakti hai, vishesharoop se tab jab mudra ki aapoorti ghatati jaati hai aur maal ki aapoorti badhti jaati hai. apasfeeti ke aitihaasik prakaran mudra ki aapoorti mein vruddhi ke bina hi aksar maal ki badhti hui aapoorti se sambandhit hain (utpaadakata mein vruddhi ke kaaran), athva (mahaan mandi ke saath hi aur sanbhavataya 1990 ke dashak ke aaranbhik varshon mein) maal ki maang mein giraavat ke saath mudra ki aapoorti mein kami ke sanyojan se sambandhit hai. mahaan mandi par ben barnaanke dvaara kiye gaye adhyayan se yeh sanket mila hai ki, ghatati hui maang ki mein pratikriya mein, us vakt Federal rijrv ne mudra ki aapoorti kam kar di, at: isne apasfeeti laane mein sahayog pradaan kiya.

apasfeeti ke aadhaarbhoot prakaar

apasfeeti ke chaar prakaar ke bhed batalaae gaye hain. do maang ke paksh mein hain aur do aapoorti ke paksh mein:

  • vikaas apasfeeti. (maal ki aapoorti mein vruddhi. CPI mein kami).
  • nakadi nirmaan (jamaakhori) apasfeeti (nakadi ki adhik bachat. mudraaveg mein kami. mudra ki maang mein vruddhi)
  • bank rin apasfeeti. (divaaliyaapan athva keindreeya bank ke dvaara mudra ki aapoorti mein sankuchan ke kaaran bank rin ki aapoorti mein kami)
  • samapahaari apasfeeti. (samapahan athva bank mein jama raashiyon par rok lagaana) mudra ki aapoorti mein kami)

mudra ki aapoorti ke paksh ke prakaar ki apasfeeti

mudraavaadi (vittavaadi) pariprekshya mein apasfeeti mukhyat: mudra veg mein kami ke kaaran aati hai aur/athva mudra ki rakam prati vyakti mudra ki aapoorti par nirdhaarit hoti hai.[krupaya uddharan jodein]

rin apasfeeti

rin par nirbhar aadhunik arthavyavastha mein, (keindreeya bank) dvaara uchch byaaj daron ki shuruaat kar apasfeetikr uchchakr (arthaat mudraasfeeti ko niyantrit karne ke liye) utpann ho sakte hain, jisse sanbhavat: parisanpatti ke bulabule jhatapat toot jaaen athva niyantrit arthavyavastha charamara jaae jo vaastav mein jitna sahayog de sakti thi us tulana mein utpaadan ke uchch star par kaam kar rahi thi. rin par nirbharasheel arthavyavastha mein, mudra ki aapoorti mein giraavat ullekhaneeya roop se udhaar dene ko kam karti hai, jisse aage chalakar mudra ki aapoorti mein teji se maang mein bhi teji se giraavat aa jaati hai. maang mein giraavat aati hai aur maang ki giraavat ke saath-saath, keematein ghat jaati hain kyonki aapoorti ki prachurata viksit hoti hai. jab keemate vittaposhan utpaadan ki laagat se bhi neeche utar jaati hain to ye apasfeetikaar uchchakr ban jaata hai. vyaapaar paryaapt laabh naheen utha paate kyonki isse kuchh banta-bigdta naheen hain, at: ve tab parismaapt ho jaate hain. jabase bandhak rin pradaan kiya gaya bankon ko aisi parisampattiyaan praapt hoti hain jinki keemat bandhak rin diye jaane ke baad se naatakeeya roop se neeche gir chuki hain aur agar ve un parisampattiyon ko bech bhi dein to, vein pun: aapoorti ko aur aage baadha dete hain, jo paristhiti ko keval bigaad hi detein hain. apasfeetikr uchchakr ke veg ko kam karne athva rok dene ke liye, bank aksar anishpaadit rinon ki adaayagi rok dete hain (jaise ki Japan mein haal hi hua). yeh aksar antar ko paatane ka ek upaaya hai kyonki unhein tab udhar dene par avashya hi ankush lagaana chaahiye, kyonki rin dene ke liye unke paas mudra hi naheen rah jaati, jinse aage fir maang mein kami aati hai aur isi prakaar silsila jaari rahata hai.

'sarkaari' mudra mein kami ke prabhaav

asthir mudra arthavyavastha mein, vastu vinimay evam anya vaikalpik mudra vyavasthaaen jaise ki daulareekaran aam hain aur iseeliye jab sarkaari mudra kam (ya, asaamaanya roop se avishvaasaneeya) ho jaati hai, tab bhi vaanijya (vyaapaarik len-den) jaari rah sakta hai (jaise ki haal hi mein roos aur Argentina mein hua).[krupaya uddharan jodein] choonki aisi arthavyavastha mein keindreeya sarkaar aksar asamarth ho jaaya karti hai aur agar paryaapt tareeke se aantarik arthavyavastha par niyantran karna chaahati bhi hai to bhi aam aadamiyon ke liye aayaatit maal ka bhugataan karne ke alaave sarkaari mudra haasil karne ki bheeshan aavashyakta to hai naheen. vaastav mein, vastu-vinimay aisi arthavyavastha mein suraksha shulk ke roop mein kaam karta hai jo sthaaneeya utpaadan ki sthaaneeya khapat ko protsaahit karta hai.[krupaya uddharan jodein] yeh khanan aur khoj ke utsaahavardhan ke roop mein bhi kaam karta hai; kyonki aisi arthavyavastha mein paise kamaane ka aasaan tareeka jameen khodakar ise baahar nikaalna hai.

vishesh vyavasthaaen (?)

jab keindreeya bank ne naamamaatr byaaj ki dar kramash: shoonya tak neeche utaar di hai, to ab aage ki byaaj ki daron ko kam kar maang ko utsaahit kar badhaava naheen de sakte hain. yeh prasiddh chalanidhi jaal hai. jab apasfeeti pakad jama leti hai, isse "vishesh vyavastha" ki aavashyakta hoti hai taaki shoonya ke naamamaatr ke byaaj dar par "udhaar de" sake (jo ab bhi rinaatmak apasfeeti dar ke kaaran bahut oonchi vaastavik byaaj dar hai).

rin apasfeeti ke udaaharan

mahaan mandi ke dauraan is chakr ki pehchaan bade paimaane par ki gayi hai. bhayaavah roop se vastuon ki maang mein ki kami karte hue antarraashtreeya vyaapaar teji se anubandhit hone lage, at: ek badi kshamata nishkriya hone lagi aur bank ki viflataaon ka silsila jaari ho gaya. aisi hi sthiti Japan mein, share aur real estate baajaar ke patan ke saath 1990 ki shuruaat mein aarambh hui, jise Japani sarkaar ke dvaara adhiktar bankon par kabja kar unhein patan se rokate hue aur unamein se anek, jo buri haalat mein theen, unke seedhe niyantran ko apne adhikaar mein lete hue kaaboo paaya gaya. ye ghatnaaen sangeen bahas ke mudde hain.

san 2000 ke baad ki aarthik mandi ke dauraan gambhir apasfeeti ka jokhim

kuchh arthashaastriyon ka tark hai ki san 2000 saal ke baad aarthik mandi ek aise daur se gujr rahi thi jab sanyukt raajya amareeka gambhir apasfeeti ke jokhim se joojh raha tha aur iseeliye Federal rijrv kendreeya bank dvaara byaaj ki daron par san 2001 ke baad se "udaaravaadi" rukh ke saath niyantran kiya jaana sahi tha.

apasfeeti ka pratikaar karna

1930 ke dashak tak, arthashaastriyon ka aamtaur par yeh maanana tha ki apasfeeti apna ilaaj khud karegi. jaise hi keematein kam hongi, maang mein svaabhaavik roop se vruddhi aa jaayegi aur aarthik pranaali bina baahari hastakshep ke apna sudhar swayam kar legi.

1930 ke dashakon mein mahaan mandi ke dauraan is drushtikon ko chunauti ka saamana karna pada tha. kenesiyaai arthashaastriyon ka tark tha ki aarthik pranaali apasfeeti ke sandarbh mein swayam-sudhaarane waali naheen thi aur iseeliye sarkaaron evam kendreeya bankon ko maang ko badhava dene ke liye karon mein katauti athva sarkaari kharchon mein vruddhi ke jariye sakriya kadam uthaane pade the. keindreeya bank se aarakshit aavashyakataaen kaafi badi theen aur tab "khule" baajaar ke parichaalan ke jariye (jaise ki, raajakosh baund ki nakadi khareed) rin mein giraavat ke kaaran (rin mudra ka hi ek roop hai) niji kshetron mein mudra ki aapoorti ko kam karne ke liye keindreeya bank keval aarakshit aavashyakataaon mein kami laakar mudra ki aapoorti mein prabhaavi vruddhi kar sakte the.

mudraavaadi vichaaron ke utthaan ke saath, apasfeeti se ladne ke liye byaaj ki daron mein kami laakar maang ko prasaarit karne par dhyaan kendrit kiya gaya (arthaat mudra ki "laagat" mein kami laakar). Japan tatha sanyukt raajya America donon mein hi maang ko protsaahit karne ke liye udaaravaadi neetiyon ki vifalta ke paripekshya mein is soch ko jhatka laga jab 1990 mein aaranbhik dashakon aur 2000-2002 ke madhya share baajaar ko ek ke baad ek jhatke lage. arthashaastriyon ko ab parisampattiyon ke moolyon ke baare mein maudrik neetiyon ke (sfeetikaari) prabhaav ko lekar chinta hone lagi. nirantar kam hoti vaastavik dar parisanpatiyon ke oonche moolya aur atyadhik rin ke sanchayan ka seedha kaaran ho sakti hai. isliye ghatati hui darein asthaayi upashaamak pramaanit ho sakti hain, jisse sambhaavit bhavishya rin ka apasfeeti sankat gambheerta se ubhar sakta hai.

apasfeeti ke udaaharan

United Kingdom

pratham vishvayuddh ke dauraan svarn maanak dvaara british pound starling ko hata diya gaya tha. is neeti parivartan ke peechhe prerana pratham vishvayuddh ko vitt poshit karne ki thi; jiske parinaamon mein mudraasfeeti evam pound ki antarraashtreeya vinimay daron mein tadanusaar giraavat ke saath-saath sone ke moolya mein vruddhi kaaranon mein se ek tha. jab yuddh ke baad pound ko pun: sone ke maanak mein lauta liya gaya to ise yuddh se pehle ki sone ki keemat ke aadhaar par kiya gaya, choonki yeh sone moolya ke baraabar tha, pound ke moolya ke oonche lakshya ke saath fir se sangathit karne ke liye keematon ko girne dena aavashyak tha.

United Kingdom ko san 1921 mein 10% ka, 1922 mein 14% ka aur san 1930 ke shurooaati dashak mein use 5% ki apasfeeti ki abhijnyaata hui. [8]

sanyukt raajya America mein apasfeeti

pramukh apasfeetiyaan

sanyukt raajya America mein apasfeeti ke teen pramukh daur rahe hain.

san 1836 ki aarthik mandi inmein se pehla tha, jab sanyukt raajya America mein mudra lagbhag 30% tak sankuchit ho gayi, jiski tulana keval mahaan mandi se hi ki ja sakti hai. yeh "apasfeeti" moolyon mein kami aur mudra ki upalabdh maatra mein kami donon hi paribhaashaaon ko saarthak banaati hai.

doosra daur gruhayuddh ke baad ka tha, jise kabhi mahaan apasfeeti ka daur kaha jaata tha. sanbhavataya yeh svarn maanak ke lautane ke kaaran prerit tha, jab gruhayuddh mein dauraan kaagaj ki mudra ko viraam de diya gaya tha.

san 1873-96 ki mahaan shithilta soochi ke sheersh ke nikat ho sakti hai. iske kaaryakshetr ka vistaar vaishvik tha. laagat kam karne aur utpaadakata badhaane ki praudyogiki mein unnati iske vishesh lakshan the. isne apni drudhta se visheshagyon ko achanbhe mein daal diya aur raajaneetijnyaon ke ise samajhne ke prayaason ko pratirodhak kar diya, taaki ise akele hi rivers hone diya jaaya. isne peedhi ki oopar uthati hui baund ki keematon ko aarthak moolya muhaiya karaaya, saath hi saath hamesha se hote rahane vaale ghaaton se asaavadhaan lenadaaron ko chookon evam agrim maangon ke maarft satark kiya. san 1875 se 1896 ke beech miltan fraayadamain ke anusaar sanyukt raajya America mein 1.7% prativrsh aur Britain mein 0.8% prativrsh ki dar se moolyon mein giraavat aa gayi. [2]

teesara daur san 1930-1933 ke beech ka tha jab apasfeeti ki dar lagbhag 10 pratishat prativrsh thi, sanyukt raajya ka ek hissa mahaan mandi ki chapet mein tha jab bank vifal ho gaye the aur berojgaari 25% ki oonchaai or pahunch chuki thi.

jaisa ki 1836 mein mahaan mandi ki apasfeeti, kisi achaanak vruddhi athva utpaadan mein adhishesh ke kaaran aarambh naheen huin thi. yeh isliye hui thi kyonki rin ke vruhat sankuchan ke kaaran divaaliyaapanon ne ek aisa maahol taiyaar kar diya tha ki nakadi (rokad) ki paagalon jaisi maang ho rahi thi aur Federal rijrv is maang ki paryaapt poorti naheen kar pa raha tha, iseeliye bank ek-ek kar dharaashayi hone lage (kyonki ve nakadi ki is achaanak maang ki poorti karne mein asamarth the - faikshanal-rijrv banking drastavya hai). fishr sameekaran ke drushtikon se (oopar dekhein), mudra ki aapoorti (rin) evam mudra veg jo itni gahari thi ki Federal rijrv ke dvaara protsaahit mudra ki aapoorti mein vruddhi ke baavajood moolya mein apasfeeti aarambh ho gayi jabki donon mein hi sahavarti chhoot thi.

laghu apasfeetiyaan

sanyukt raajya America ke poore itihaas mein mudraasfeeti ki dar shoonya tak pahunch chuki hai evam kuchh samay ke liye to isse bhi neeche utar gayi hai (nakaaraatmak mudraasfeeti hi apasfeeti hai). doosare vishvayuddh se pehle 19veen aur 20veen sadi mein yeh bahut aam thi.

kuchh arthashaastriyon ka maanana hai ki ho sakta hai sanyukt raajya maujooda samay mein 2007-2010 ke beech ke vitteeya sankat ke ek hisse ke roop mein apasfeeti ka ehsaas kar raha ho; rin-apasfeeti ke siddhaant ki tulana karein. saal dar saal, lagaataar chh: maheenon ke liye upabhokta ki keematon mein August 2009 ke ant tak giraavat aati rahi, mote taur par urja ki keematon mein bhaari giraavat ke kaaran.[krupaya uddharan jodein] October 2008 mein upabhokta ki keematon mein 1 pratishat ki giraavat I. yeh sanyukt raajya America mein san 1947 se ab tak ek maheene mein sabse badi giraavat thi. yeh record November 2008 mein 1.7% ki giraavat ke saath fir se toot gaya. pratyuttar mein, Federal reserve ne byaaj ki daron mein katauti jaari rakhane ka faisala kiya, jo 16 December 2008 tak shoonya ki seema mein nikat tak neeche utaar diya. [9] san 2008 ke ant se 2009 ke aarambh tak, kuchh arthashaastriyon ko yeh bhaya ho gaya ki sanyukt raajya apasfeetikr chakr mein pravesh kar sakta hai.[krupaya uddharan jodein] arthashaastri nauriyel rubini ne yeh bhavishyavaani ki ki sanyukt raajya America apasfeetikr aarthik mandi ke daur mein pravesh kar jaaega aur iske varnan ke liye yeh shabdaavali "mudraasfeetijnya" ke saath mel khaaega.[10] yeh mudraasfeetijnit mandi ke vipreet hai jo san 2008 ke vasant aur greeshm ke dauraan dar ka mukhya kaaran thi. tab sanyukt raajya America ko parimeya apasfeeti ka anubhav hone laga; March mein -0.38% se July mein -2.10% ki dar tak lagaataar ghatati rahi. majadoori ke mukaam par October 2009 mein, Colorado raajya ne nimnatam majadoori ki ghoshana ki jo mudraasfeeti ka soochakaank hai, use kam kar diya gaya jo 1938 se abatak ka kisi raajya ke liye pehli baar majadoori mein katauti thi.[11]

Hongkong mein apasfeeti

san 1997 ke ant mein Asiaee vitteeya sankat ke baad, Hongkong ko apasfeeti ki lambi avadhi jhelni padi jo 2004 saal ki chauthi timaahi tak bhi khatm naheen hui. [3] sankat ke baad kai poorv Asiaee mudraaon ka avmoolyan ho gaya. haalaanki, Hongkong dollar ko Amreeki dollar ke sahaare aanka gaya. is riktata ki poorti upabhokta ki keematon ki apasfeeti se ki gayi. mukhyabhoomi cheen (meinnalaind chaayana) se aayaatit sasti panya vastuon ne sthiti ko aur bhi kharaab kar diya aur upabhokta ke vishvaas ko kamjor kar diya. gineej world rikaardas ke anusaar, san 2003 mein Hongkong mein sabse kam mudraasfeeti ke saath arthavyavastha thi. [4]

Japan mein apasfeeti

apasfeeti 1990 ke dashak mein shuroo hui. bank of Japan aur sarkaar ne byaaj ki daron mein katauti kar ise khatm karne ki koshish ki hai (unki 'maatraatmak sahajata' neeti ke tahat) lekin ek dashak se bhi adhik samay ke liye ve asafal rahe. July 2006 mein, shoonya dar neeti samaapt ho gayi thi.

Japan mein apasfeeti ke liye jin pranaaleegat kaaranon ko shaamil kiye jaane ke baare mein kaha ja sakta hai:

  • parisanpatti ki giri hui keematein. 1980 ke dashak mein Japan mein ikviti aur achal sampatti donon ki keemat bulabule tulanaatmak roop se bade the (jo 1989 ke ant tak aur oopar uthane lage). jab parisanpatti ke moolya mein kami aa jaati hai, mudra ki aapoorti mein sankuchan aa jaata hai, jo apasfeetikr hai.
  • divaaliya companiyon: bankon ne companiyon aur vyaktiyon ko achal sampatti mein nivesh ke liye udhaar diye. jab achal sampatti ki moolyon mein giraavat aa gayi, in rinon ka bhugataan naheen kiya ja saka. bank jamaanat (bhoomi) par bhugataan lene ki koshish kar sakte hai, lekin isse rin ka bhugataan naheen hoga. bankon ne faisala lene mein deri kar di hai is ummeed se ki sampatti ki keematon mein sudhaar hoga. raashtreeya banking viniymon dvaara in vilanbon ke liye anumati di gayi. kuchh bank in companiyon ko itna adhik rin dete hain jiska upayog pehle se hi liye gaye rin ki seva ke liye kiya jaata hai. is satat prakriya ko "achetan nuksaan" ko banaae rakhane ke roop mein jaana jaata hai aur jab tak poori tarah se sampattiyon ka punarmoolyaankan na ho jaaye aur/ya bik na jaae (aur haani ki bharpaai na ho jaaye), arthavyavastha mein yeh ek apasfeetikr taakat ke roop mein bani rahegi. divaaliyaapan kaanoon, bhoomi hastaantaran kaanoon aur kar vyavastha mein sudhaar ke sujhaav (the ikonomist ke dvaara) paddhati ke roop mein is prakriya ko gatisheel banaane ke liye aur is tarah apasfeeti ka ant karne ke liye diye gaye hain.
  • divaaliya bank: bank apne anishpaadit rin ke saath arthaat jo apne rin par bhugataan praapt naheen kar rahe hain, lekin abhi tak unhein batte khaate naheen daala gaya hai, ve ab aur nakadi udhaar naheen de sakte hain, unhein apni nakadi ke bhandaar mein ijaafa karna chaahiye taaki ashodhya rin ka bhugataan ho sake.
  • divaaliya bankon ka bhaya: Japani logon ko bhaya hai ki bankon ka patan hoga iseeliye ve bank ke khaate mein apne paise ko bachaane ke bajaay sone ki khareed (sanyukt raajya America ya Japani) athva trejari baand ki khareed jyaada pasand karte hain. yeh usi prakaar ka matlab hai ki udhaar dene ke liye mudra upalabdh hai naheen hai aur isliye aarthik vikaas bhi ruka rahata hai. iska arth yeh hai ki bachat ki dar khapat ko kam kar deti hai, lekin ek saksham tareeke se nae nivesh ke liye prerana roop mein prakat naheen hoti. log bhi, aage vikaas ki gati ko dheema karte hue, achal sampatti ka maalikaana haasil kar bachat karte hain, kyonki isse jameen ki keematon mein ijaafa hota hai.
  • aayaatit apasfeeti: Japan cheen aur doosare desh sasti upabhojya vastuon, kachche maal ka aayaat karte hain (un deshon mein kam vetan aur teji se vikaas ki vajah se). is prakaar, aayaatit utpaadon ki keematein kam ho rahi hain. ghareloo utpaadakon ko pratispardha mein bane rahane ke liye in keematon ke saath baraabari karni hogi. arthavyavastha mein kai cheejon ke liye ye keematein ghat jaati hai aur is tarah apasfeetikr hai.

Wall street journal ke anusaar November 2009 mein Japan mein apasfeeti laut I hai. Bloomberg L.pi. ki report hai ki October 2009 mein upabhokta keematon mein ek nae rikaard 2.2% ke saath giraavat aa gayi.[12]

Ireland mein apasfeeti

February 2009 mein, kendreeya saankhyiki kaaryaalaya Ireland ne ghoshana ki ki keematon mein 2008 mein ek hi samay mein 0.1% ki giraavat ke saath January 2009 ke dauraan, desh ko apasfeeti jhelni padi 1960 ke baad yeh pehli baar aisa hua hai ki aayarish arthavyavastha ko apasfeeti ki maar jhelni padi. samagr upabhokta moolyon mein maheene mein 1.7% ki kami hui. [13]

Ireland ke vitt mantri Brian lenihn ne, RTÉ radio ke saath ek saakshaatkaar mein apasfeeti ka ullekh kiya. RTÉ ke vivran ke anusaar, "vitt mantri Brian lenihn ne kaha hai ki apasfeeti par avashya vichaar kiya jaana chaahiye jab bachche ke laabh ke liye bajat mein katauti, saarvajanik kshetr ke vetan aur peshevar shulk par vichaar kiya ja raha ho. mistar lenihn ne kaha maheene dar maheene is saal ke jeevan yaapan ki laagat mein 6.6% ki giraavat I hai."

yeh saakshaatkaar isliye ullekhaneeya hai ki is saakshaatkaar mein mantri dvaara apasfeeti ko vivekapoorn tareeke se nakaaraatmak naheen maana gaya hai. mantri mahodaya apasfeeti ka ullekh aankade ke ek vishay ke roop mein karte hain jo kuchh laabhon mein katauti ke liye bahas mein sahaayak hai. sarkaar ke is sadasya dvaara kathit aarthik apasfeeti ke kaaran hue nuksaan ke liye prasangavash havaala dena ya ullekh karna naheen hai. yeh aadhunik yug mein apasfeeti ka ek ullekhaneeya udaaharan hai jiski kisi bhi ullekh ke bina ek varishth vitt mantri ke dvaara charcha ki ja rahi hai ki usase kaise bacha ja sakta hain ya kya yeh hona chaahiye. [14]

inhein bhi dekhein

sandarbh

  1. Robert J. baro aur vitoriyo greeli (1994), yooropeeyan maikroikaunomiks, adhyaaya 8, prushth 142. ISBN 0-333-57764-7
  2. Sullivan, Arthur; Steven M. Sheffrin (2003). Economics: Principles in action. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458: Pearson Prentice Hall. pp. 343. aai॰aऍsa॰abee॰aऍna॰ 0-13-063085-3. http://www.pearsonschool.com/index.cfm?locator=PSZ3R9&PMDbSiteId=2781&PMDbSolutionId=6724&PMDbCategoryId=&PMDbProgramId=12881&level=4.
  3. humel, jefari rojars. "mrutyu aur shulk, mudraasfeeti ki dar ko milaakar: saarvajanik banaam arthashaastriyon" (January 2007). [1]
  4. Andrew atkesan aur paitrik J. kahoe of the Federal rijrv bank of minepaulis apasfeeti aur avasaad: kya ek anubhavajanya link hai?
  5. ostriya ke vyaapaar chakr ka siddhaant - ludavig vaun misis pej 40-45
  6. apasfeeti: sunishchit karke ki "yeh" yahaan naheen ho raashtreeya arthashaastriyon club ke pehle Governor ben S. barnaanake dvaara di gayi tippaniyaan, Washington, di, si. 21 November 2002
  7. apasfeetikr chakr par profesar krugamain
  8. England ke bank ki timaahi mudraasfeeti ki report fravari 2009 p33 chart A
  9. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081216b.htm FRB: press release
  10. http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/29/stagnation-recession-deflation-oped-cx_nr_1030roubini.html Get Ready for 'Stag-Deflation'
  11. eldo savaaldi dvaara Colorado ka nirdhaarit majadoori mein nyoonatam giraavat, the denavar post, 10/13/2009
  12. Japan vasooli sankul kamjor ke roop mein steemyulas package (apadeta3)
  13. RTÉ news - difleshan hits ikaunomik; 49 saal mein pehli baar
  14. RTÉ News - Deflation a factor in Budget cuts - Lenihan
  • ben S. barnaanake. apasfeeti: sunishchit karke ki "yeh" yahaan naheen ho. America ke Federal reserve board. 21-11-2002. 18-12-2008 ko pun:praapt. (vebasaait puraalekh ke dvaara http://www.webcitation.org/5bdTTiZhU)
  • Michael bordo aur Andrew filaardo, apasfeeti aur aitihaasik pariprekshya mein maudrik neeti: bhootapoorv ko smaran karna ya us jeevan ka dandit dobaara doharaana?, aarthik neeti, 2005 October peepi 799-844.
  • gorj erbar, Germany mein apasfeeti ke jokhim aur maudrik ECB ki aarthik neeti. in: kaisifo forum 4 (2003), 3, peepi 24-29
  • Charles gudahaart aur boris haufamain, apasfeeti, rin aur sampatti ki keematon in: apasfeeti - vartamaan aur aitihaasik pariprekshya, eds. richrd si.ke. baradekin aur piyre L. siklos, Cambridge university press, Cambridge, 2004.
  • antarraashtreeya mudra kosh, apasfeeti: nirdhaarakon, jokhim aur neeti vikalp - ek svatantr taask fors ko khojana, Washington di.si., 30 April 2003.
  • antarraashtreeya mudra kosh, world ikaunomik outlook 2006 - vaishveekaran aur mudraasfeeti ki dar, Washington di.si., April 2006.
  • otamaar issing, Euro chaar saal baad: kya vahaan apsfeeti ka khatra hai?, 16 Europeeya vitt sammelan, 2 dismbar 2002, London, Europäaische jeintralabaink, freinkafart ऍm main
  • paul krugamain, its back: Japan ki mandi aur nakadi jaal ka lautana, in: brookings aarthik gatividhi 2 bruking pepars, (1998), peepi 137-205
  • steven bi. kaamin, maariyo maraaji aur John dablyoo. schindlar, kya cheen "niryaat apasfeeti?", antarraashtreeya vitt charcha patron nan 791, Federal reserve system ke gavarnars board, Washington deesi January 2004.

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