Al Neeno Se Apne Stauks Ko Kaise Bachaaen

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Al Neeno Se Apne Stauks Ko Kaise Bachaaen

[ Narendra Nathan | Mumbai ] bhaarateeya mausam vibhaag ne kaha hai ki is saal monsoon ki baarish 50 saal ke ausat ka 95 parseint rahegi. Usane kaha hai ki al neeno ki vajah se baarish saamaanya se kam rahegi. Iska share baajaar par kitna asar hoga? Abhi tak market par monsoon ke fail hone ka asar naheen dikha hai. Haalaanki baarish ke season ki shuruaat hote hi aisa ho sakta hai. Agar baarish kam hoti hai to market mein achhi giraavat aa sakti hai. Sitras edavaaijars ke faaundar sanjaya sinha ne yeh baat kahi. Abhi tak aise sanket naheen mile hain ki al neeno ka asar baarish par jyaada hoga. Haalaanki agar aisa hota hai to 2009 ki tarah is baar bhi desh mein sookhe jaise haalaat ban sakte hain. Haalaanki samay ke saath bhaarateeya ikanaumi ki monsoon par nirbharata kam hui hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi desh ki arthavyavastha ke liye ahamiyt rakhati hai. Bank of America meril linch ke India ikanaumist indraneel sen gupta ne kaha, 'Agar is saal al neeno ke chalte monsoon par negetiv asar hota hai to GDP growth mein 0.60-0.70 parseint ki kami aa sakti hai. ' monsoon ki baarish kam hone se egreekalchar growth aur rooral ikanaumi par bura asar ho sakta hai. Daraasal, desh ki 60 parseint kheti monsoon ke bharose hai. Ab tak share baajaar par monsoon ko lekar di ja rahi vaurning ka bahut kam asar dikha hai. Baajaar mein kendra mein stebal sarkaar banane ki ummeed ke chalte teji aa rahi hai. Maana ja raha hai ki NDA agali sarkaar banaaega aur vah ikanaumik rifaurms par teji se kadam badhaaega. Isliye market abhi monsoon ke saamaanya se kam rahane ka jyaada notice naheen le raha hai. Ek eksapart ne to yeh bhi kaha ki unhonne al neeno ke bure asar ka abhi tak andaaja naheen lagaaya hai. Market par al neeno ke kam asar ki ek vajah yeh bhi ho sakti hai ki inavestars ko mausam vibhaag ke anumaan par jyaada aitabaar naheen hai. Weather forakaast mein aksar galatiyaan saamane I hain. Haalaanki agar mausam vibhaag ka anumaan sahi saabit hota hai, to market ka uske asar se bachana mushkil hoga. Ikviti inavestar ko iske liye taiyaar rahana chaahiye. Ham bata rahe hain ki kin sektars par iska bura asar ho sakta hai aur unase bachane ke liye kya kadam uthaane chaahiye: Egri sector egreekalchar se jo sektars seedhe jude hue hain, kam baarish ke chalte unke performance par asar pad sakta hai. Inmein fartilaaijar, pestisaaid aur traiktars shaamil hain. Prabhudaas leelaadhar ke enaalist balavindar Singh ne kaha, 'Monsoon ki vajah se agro-kemikl praudakts ki maang kam hone ke saboot naheen hain, lekin kam baarish ke chalte aisi companiyon par negetiv asar ho sakta hai. ' misaal ke liye agar monsoon mein deri hoti hai to buaai prabhaavit hogi. Iska matlab yeh hai ki fartilaaijar aur pestisaaid companiyon ki sales mein pehle kvaurtar (April se June) mein kami aa sakti hai. Monsoon ke kamjor rahane se mahindra end mahindra par negetiv asar ho sakta hai. Isse company ki traiktar sales mein kami aa sakti hai. Ikanaumik slodaaun ke chalte company ke passenger aur kamarshiyl vheekals kaitegari par bhi bura asar hoga. Haalaanki monsoon ki baarish kam rahane se egreekalchar segameint ki kuchh companiyon ko faayda bhi ho sakta hai. Sabse jyaada faayda drip irigeshan farms ko hoga. Maharashtra sarkaar ne sabhi cash kraup ke liye June 2015 se drip irigeshan ko kanpalasari banaane ka faisala kiya hai. Yeh is sector ke liye positive news hai. Haal hi mein rupaye mein majabooti I hai. Isse companiyon ke liye inport kaust kam hogi. Iska asar margin mein badhotri ke taur par saamane aaega. Is segameint mein top parafaurmar jain irigeshan ho sakti hai. Pichhle do saal mein is company ke munaafe mein 300 parseint ki badhotri hui hai. Rate seinsitiv sektars al neeno ka negetiv asar rate seinsitiv sektars par bhi ho sakta hai. Daraasal , egreekalchar praudakshan mein giraavat se khaane ke saamaan mahange ho sakte hain. Isse retail inafleshan mein badhotri hogi. Senagupta ne kaha , ' retail inafleshan kuchh samay tak 8-10 parseint ke beech rah sakti hai. ' monsoon ke fail hone aur inafleshan badhne se share baajaar mein giraavat aaegi. Sinha ne kaha , ' khaane ke saamaan ke daam kam hone se mahangaai mein kami aane ki ummeed ki ja rahi hai. Haalaanki monsoon ki baarish kam hone se yeh ummeed dam tod sakti hai. ' jab tak inafleshan haayar leval par rahati hai , reserve bank intarest rate kam naheen kar paaega. RBI ne 2014-15 mein 8 parseint aur iske baad vaale saal ke liye 6 parseint ka inafleshan taaraget rakha hai. Is baare mein nomura India ki ikanaumist sonal varma ne bataaya , ' jab tak inafleshan 6 parseint se neeche stebal naheen hoti , tab tak RBI intarest rate mein katauti naheen karega. ' ismein ek se dedh saal ka samay lag sakta hai. Sonal ne kaha ki haayar intarest rate ka saamana kuchh aur samay tak karna pad sakta hai. Sookha padne par sarkaari khajaane ki haalat bhi kharaab hogi. Sarkaar ke liye sookhe vaale saal mein fartilaaijar aur food subsidy kam karna mushkil hoga. Vaheen RBI bhi sakht maunetari paulisi par ad sakta hai. ' Modi lahar ' ke chalte haal mein bank aur real estate jaise rate seinsitiv sektars mein bhi teji I hai. Inmein praufit booking karni chaahiye. Kya iska matlab yeh hai ki aapko rate seinsitiv sector se poori tarah baahar nikal jaana chaahiye ? Loksabha chunaav ke nateeje aane mein jyaada vakt naheen bacha hai. Isliye ismein samajhadaari naheen hai. 16 May ke pehle market par kamjor monsoon ka asar naheen dikhega. Kam baarish ke chalte iske baad baajaar mein giraavat aa sakti hai. Kotak securities mein peeseeji research aur senior vaais presideint deepen shaah ne bataaya , ' rate seinsitiv sheyaron mein teji ka maahaul ab bhi bana hua hai. Isliye abhi inse niklana theek naheen hoga. Inavestars ko abhi rate seinsitiv sektars mein elokeshan badhaana chaahiye. ' aapko private aur sarkaari bankon mein bhi fark karna hoga. Ho sakta hai ki sookhe vaale saal mein nai sarkaar kisaan karj maafi jaise paupulist kadam uthaae. Sarkaari bank pehle hi badhte naun - parafaurming loan se joojh rahe hain. Sookha padne par unki haalat aur kharaab ho sakti hai. Doosari or private sector ke bank kaheen achhi haalat mein hain. Sheyarakhaan ke banking enaalist dinesh shukla ne bataaya , '2014-15 mein sarkaari bankon ki praufit growth flat rah sakti hai , vaheen private bankon ka munaafa 10 parseint se jyaada badhega. ' private sector ke bade bankon mein enaalist ICICI bank ke share khareedne ki salaah de rahe hain. Mid kaip private sector segameint mein Federal bank achha pik hai. Shukla ne bataaya , ' Federal bank ki growth aage chalakar tej ho sakti hai. Iske paas paise ki kami naheen hai aur vah retail segameint par focus kar raha hai. Federal bank ke share saste bhi hain. Isliye iski ri - rating bhi ho sakti hai. ' rooral theem kharaab monsoon ka un companiyon par bhi bura asar ho sakta hai , jinhein rooral growth ka faayda mil raha hai. Kam baarish ke chalte kisaanon aur kheton mein kaam karne vaale majadooron ki income kam ho sakti hai. Isse rooral kanjampashan mein kami aaegi. Iska sabse kharaab asar efaemaseeji sector par ho sakta hai. Shekhar ne kaha , ' efaemaseeji sector ko 2009 mein kaafi nuksaan hua tha. ' too - vheelar companiyon par bhi kharaab monsoon ka negetiv asar hoga. Sinha ne kaha , ' haal mein efaemaseeji aur too - vheelar companiyon ne market ko aautaparafaurm kiya hai. Isliye inmein kuchh giraavat aa sakti hai. ' efaemaseeji sector ka vailyooeshan bhi jyaada hai. Isliye karekshan ke baad hi usamein paisa lagaane ke baare mein sochana chaahiye. Shaah ne bataaya ki unki farm Hindustan Unilever , kolaget aur nesle sahit jyaadaatar efaemaseeji companiyon par negetiv jariya rakhati hai. Sef inavestameint jo inavestars jyaada risk naheen uthaana chaahate , unke liye kuchh hi raaste bache hain. Maujooda haalaat mein IT aur pharma sector apekshaakrut kuchh surakshit hain. In par kharaab monsoon ka bura asar naheen hoga. Haal mein rupaye mein majabooti ke chalte IT aur pharma companiyon ko kuchh nuksaan hua hai , lekin RBI aur nai sarkaar rupaye mein aur majabooti naheen aane deinge kyonki isse eksaport sector par negetiv asar hoga. Shaah ne kaha ki America aur Europe mein ikanaumik rikvari se IT aur sector ko faayda hoga. Inavestars ko TCS aur Infosys jaisi companiyon ke share khareedne cha hiye.

Al Neeno Se Apne Stauks Ko Kaise Bachaaen http://www.angrejinews.com/pic/49530